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Posted

once taild a guy on twitter who bet unders on second half goals based on some nerdy pressing intensity stat and followed it for like two weeks and actually made a small profit, math can be spooky sometimes

Posted

One practical thing I do is track closing line value for my model's picks over at least 500 bets before trusting it with real money. That metric tells you more about long term edge than any single win or loss.

Posted

been digging into the england argentina matchup tonight and the shot conversion metrics are wild, every model ive run shows englands xG in knockout stages is way above argentinas backline numbers but the books still have it super tight which smells like value

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