Overbetting the river: Great value or too risky?

[Blaqboygram]

When you’re confident you have the best hand by the river, do you prefer a standard value bet to ensure a call, or do you like throwing out a massive overbet to polarize your range? Wondering how often people actually get called on those.

 

[Krxevlyn]

I feel like people massively overestimate how often they get called on a polarized overbet, especially at the micros where I play. Most players just snap fold anything that isnt the nuts.

[yukiororia576]

I smashhed an overbet against a Neymar squad bettor who could not let go of his flopped set, easiest chips I ever stacked.

[voxrily96]

lol a whale called my pot siezd shove with second pair

[Larsnda]

How often do they call with ace high?

[novaast]

Yea once a guy called my huge river shove with just a missed flush draw, said he thought I was bluffing.

[novaaerel447]

honestly i kinda disagree, overbets work way better when you actually do have the nuts and the villain has a strong second best hand they cant let go of, so its not as risky as people think if you read the board texture right. its the randome overbluffs that get snapped off too often at low stakes.

[ivshengyn58]

Last week I overbet shoved the river with a full house and the guy tanked forever before calling with jsut a straight, so it does work if you pick the right spots. Honestly the key is noticing when they look really attached to their hand, like when they check raise the turn or something.

[nylax3]

standard bet wins more long run, less need to hero fold

[xorva69]

I lean towards the standard bet honestly, but every now and then I'll overbet when the board texture just screams they have something they won't fold

[tyceon]

i do it more when the board is wet and i think they hit a mddling hand, like top pair weak kicker kinda stuff. that's the spot where you print honestly

[nyxwyn52]

Big overbets on the river are where the real profit hides especially in low stakes MTTs when the rec players just cant fold two pair even if the board is paired and the flush came in lol. I started doing it more often after watching some high roller streams and the call rate is surprisingly high if you time it right.

[nylaezyl]

the thing that changed my overbet success rate was watching their timing on earlier streets, if they snap called turn they almost always have something they cant let go of on a brick river. i started only overbetting when i see that instant call pattern and it prints way more often.

[shredralyn]

I stick with the smaller bet most of the tiem because a 2x pot shove just gets so many folds from hands that wouldve happily paid off a half pot.

[zexorora0]

River overbets pritn when the villan just wont let go.

[Rahmat767]

The value is there but discipline matters more than chasing big odds

[vexanan70]

Too riskky if they tank forever and then fold.

[clotra]

I keep it smaller most of the time because the overbet feels likke it turns my value hand into a bluff way too often. People just snap fold and you miss out on chips you could have easily collected with a half pot bet.

[cattyreact]

ngl i only overbet against ppl i know are glued to their screen, randoms just instafold bro ? ngl

[Wrenynni]

I overbet shoved for like 1.8x pot once with the stone cold nuts against a guy who had been calling me down all session and he snapped me off with top pair no kicker, I almost fell out of my chair These days I save it for specific villains who overvalue their hands instead of blasting it every time

[phantelan]

I only do it when I know they cant fold top pair

[ravenollyn]

Overbetting is just a donation if you misread the table dynamics

[hal2ify7t7]

tbh i overbet the river a few weeks ago with the absolute coconuts and the guy tanked so long i thought my client froze, then he called with second pair lol. but usually if the board is super dry i just go for like 60% pot so they dont hero fold.

[ivos84cd]

i swear half the time they just snap fold and i sit there thinking i left chips on the table, do you find it works better against specific player types or more about the board texture?

[ashj0kjpexl]

Against the usual regs I much preer a chunky overbet, the value you miss from their folds is totally made up for when someone hero calls you light once in a while