Understanding the "Bad Seed"

[Seoulmate]

If you don't mind I will use Limbo as an example as it's relationship to the seed (along with crash) is the most transparent of the games at Stake.

Over a large number of rolls, on average 5x will show every 5 rolls, 10x will show every 10 rolls and 100x will show every 100 rolls *

When the seed is perceived as "good" by players each target occurs above what would be it's average expected occurrence. 
So 10x may show every 4 rolls on average over the shorter term, instead of the expected average of every 10 rolls.

When a seed is considered bad, the target number's will show below expected average occurrence. So our 10x for example may be showing every 20 rolls. A particularly rough seed will have every target number in negative occurrence. Martengaling in this instance will give your bank roll a quick death and flat betting will give it a slower but eventual death.

This average fluctuates for each target number as you bet through the seed. We can call it a moving average, but over a longer number of rolls all occurrences will eventually average out to their expected occurrence. The seed essentially adheres to what is commonly known as the "Law of Large numbers"

 Given sufficient frequency of events actual occurrence = expected occurrence

So as the average occurrence of 10x should resolve to occurring once every 10 rolls. The "good" or "bad" seeds eventually balance out. So bad seeds can become amazing seeds and visa versa. If you are patient and bet conservatively trough a bad section of a seed, you will very often be rewarded at the end by a very nice section of high multipliers.

So in reality all seeds over time balance out and are created equal, at times you may be in a "bad" section or maybe a "good" section of the seed, but one thing that is for certain is that it won't stay that way indefinitely.

I'm not sure how the seed relates to games like Slots or Blackjack so I can't comment on those. Maybe someone else can explain how this relates to those other games at stake.

 

*I have approximated the numbers for the sake of simplicity as my aim is to explain the general concept. Math Nazi's you can put your revolver down and untwist your panties.

[sheenazbay]

I always estimate the amount of red if I play dice and limbo, and with that I can know that my seed is good or bad. but for the game plinko or slot, I think it has its own multiplier for each bet, I don't know for sure

[weswayahe]

very good explanation. but many players make a change of seed when they think they have bad seeds. will the "calculation" of the previous seed continue to the new seed again?

[wngo123]

Quote

A particularly rough seed will have every target number in negative occurrence.

I have experienced that yesterday but on plinko. Busted 0.03 eth and I got almost no multipliers except 0.2x and 1x. My entire balance was eaten just like that. I don't know if seed has anyting to do with it, but recently I won a lot of high multipliers so I guess now I need to suffer and changing seed won't help.

[zulfandina]

in my opinion, the seed cannot be predicted as good or bad. we can only try it or test it through the bets we make. however, the seed always has a period of time. some people will stick with one seed if they hit a big multiplier with that seed, when in reality they are just lucky. with or not changing the seed, someone can win big

[Seoulmate]

There is the theory and there is the reality of a players experience.

A map may tell me there is no river where I stand, however I'm up to my waist in water. I ask the official tour guide, who is also up to his waist in water about the river, he points at the map and says no, there is no river here as a fish swims between us.

The map is not the same as the territory, dont confuse the two.

 

On 11/13/2019 at 8:27 PM, weswayahe said:

very good explanation. but many players make a change of seed when they think they have bad seeds. will the "calculation" of the previous seed continue to the new seed again?

This is a good question, if a player has a successful strategy chasing 7x, then changes seed. Will the new seed have less 7x occuring. I dont know tbh, a test may be in order.

[dkpiiit953]

Hello,

Just reading the text is already taking my head ahah, I think we can not know if the seed we are going to get is going to be good or not, and even it has already happened after a big round of defeat. to catch an x49 000 who will refund everything to me. So I think all the seeds are winning but on an unlimited number of bets, of course this is only my opinion.

Good day and good luck to all.

[Ayesha0770]

Well said but still a lot of players keep changing their seeds from time to time or whether they don't hit something good. I do change seeds in every 10-15k nonce but I think I found my good seed today

[wngo123]

I finally go it. Bad seed is the one I'm using at the moment. It is the seed that I am about to change to  It is the previous seed I used. Bad seed is the past, the presence and the future. That is how I feel about it. Doesn't matter what I do I always loose. I don't get high multipliers larger than 1000x. Never got anything larger and I'm on stake since the beginning and sure I have been changing seeds. I see people who joined at the same time when I did and they won so much money or get so high multipliers, but not me. How do I explain this? Unlucky? 

[Thepug]

I think that bad seeds do actually exist, like the one that I am currently on. Sometimes, a good seed can simply just have high rolls and give you a nice amount of profit.

[Etude]

This is actually a decent way to look at the seed or the randomness provided by the seed when good or bad consecutive streaks of winning and losing bets occurs.