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CRASH: Can you guess how I do this?


Ghostnipple
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These are six bets from one session today.
Note the manual cash out and the crash point.
I can achieve this kind of accuracy every time I play.
So how am I doing it?
What is your theory?

crash2.thumb.gif.bae75f9ac5c071ea16205f29ca997cc5.gifcrash1.gif.e5ce781a7e77a3f65f8c0fe8827bfa39.gif

crash4.gif.12277e63c8ca101a984eb9dde299355a.gifcrash3.thumb.gif.0b90347e3bbddfd1efd91d200cb83bd0.gif

There is a half second lag on crash, so excuse the lack of absolute precision.

image.thumb.png.e36aa6f78abbd09041df9b3517464f01.png

FYI this chart shows the win rate vs the win chance for crash  for the last 25000 games. Win chance is 0 on the chart.
Anything below zero did not meet the expected theoretical win chance for that payout multiplier.

Edited by Ghostnipple
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@Ghostnipple

image.png.718224e0d711c7934961e97df60de2da.png

From my analysis it shows that you are cashing out at around 95% from the crash out point which is awesome. My humble guess is crash is currently reusing its old data and you had managed to copy the crash history data previously. Checking its similarity you found a match and thus the accuracy of your cash out points.

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45 minutes ago, StromShadow said:

@Ghostnipple

image.png.718224e0d711c7934961e97df60de2da.png

From my analysis it shows that you are cashing out at around 95% from the crash out point which is awesome. My humble guess is crash is currently reusing its old data and you had managed to copy the crash history data previously. Checking its similarity you found a match and thus the accuracy of your cash out points.

when you cash out manually the number is climbing faster and faster and you need to contend with the crash lag, to hit exactly on the nose would be luck entirely.

24 minutes ago, v1rtu0s said:

You have played endless sessions and post only the ones where you happen to land pretty near the crash point. 

Thats a good guess but that is not how I do this. In fact I seldom cash out as I tend towards the higher numbers which dont show often. that 500x didnt show for 2 days.

 

43 minutes ago, tonka123 said:

why don't you share some with us :P

what do you think Im doing right now.

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1 hour ago, Ghostnipple said:

when you cash out manually the number is climbing faster and faster and you need to contend with the crash lag, to hit exactly on the nose would be luck entirely.

Thats a good guess but that is not how I do this. In fact I seldom cash out as I tend towards the higher numbers which dont show often. that 500x didnt show for 2 days.

 

what do you think Im doing right now.

just keep up these good wins brudha

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7 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

I can achieve this kind of accuracy every time I play.

No you can't.

 

6 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

In fact I seldom cash out

Can't just ignore all the times you're not accurate at all when determining your accuracy.  

6 hours ago, v1rtu0s said:

You have played endless sessions and post only the ones where you happen to land pretty near the crash point. 

ding ding ding

Really nothing to take away from looking at 6 bets. I mean good job, congrats.  But come on now.

Edited by dupeddonk
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4 hours ago, dupeddonk said:

No you can't.

 

Can't just ignore all the times you're not accurate at all when determining your accuracy.  

ding ding ding

Really nothing to take away from looking at 6 bets. I mean good job, congrats.  But come on now.

 I have more than six examples. You ⁸have no concept of the odds involved. My account is 11btc in profit,. I have always been in profit. How are you doing?

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1 hour ago, StromShadow said:

Hi @Ghostnipple. Good day to you.

In my humble opinion you have played well especially for the crash games which you showed above. 

Congratulations are in order. No disrespect to any forum readers or earlier posters here but lets cool things down a little. I apologize in advance if I had diverted slightly. Apologies.

what do you mean? cool things down your comment seems out of step with the general tone here in this topic.

12 hours ago, StromShadow said:

So you're saying that its all just based on luck and you happen to cash out just before it crashed out. 

Let us know why you think the winning percentages are not displayed on both Slide and also Crash.

Keep winning @Ghostnipple

no i'm not saying anything at all yet.

Edited by Ghostnipple
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4 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

 I have more than six examples. 

I'm sure you do.  Just like anyone else that plays crash.

Mathematically, every round you don't bust, there's just under a 5% chance that you will have cashed out within 5% of the actual crash point (lets call that a 'close call').

In other words, on average a player can expect to have 1 close call for every 20 winning bets.

When this happens it's human nature to have that "i'm such a genius!  I knew that was going to happen!" moment.  These are memorable moments, and it's easy to look back and remember them long after you've forgotten most of the 19 non-close calls.  We all experience this kinda thing, it's what makes gambling fun (and addictive), but it's important to be aware at some level of the harsh reality that we don't know or control a lot of what the dopamine hits often make it seem.

4 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

My account is 11btc in profit,. I have always been in profit. How are you doing?

That's awesome!  I hope it stays that way.  I'm doing ok, have had two pretty crazy heaters in the last few months, last few weeks not so much though hopefully next one is around the corner.

Edited by dupeddonk
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18 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

So how am I doing it?
What is your theory?

My theory would be that you've selected six bets where you got with 5% of the actual crash point and taken screen shots of those bets, and created a forum post. 

What would be more interesting is to know how many games are between those successful hits. A screenshot of the betting session, from the bet transaction screen, would be more representative of the overall accuracy of your calls. 

Not saying you're not some form of all knowing oracle.. Just saying, without the full picture when a gambler talks up his wins, it's not really a picture at all. 

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2 hours ago, Dave1280 said:

My theory would be that you've selected six bets where you got with 5% of the actual crash point and taken screen shots of those bets, and created a forum post. 

What would be more interesting is to know how many games are between those successful hits. A screenshot of the betting session, from the bet transaction screen, would be more representative of the overall accuracy of your calls. 

Not saying you're not some form of all knowing oracle.. Just saying, without the full picture when a gambler talks up his wins, it's not really a picture at all. 

If he could actually do what he's trying to convince people he can do, it wouldn't be hard at all to provide actual verifiable data that what he claims to be true actually is.  I think the best way to do it would be simply give us a heads up before he started playing next and agree before hand to post all bet ids. 

Seems pretty clear this will end up the same way the limbo graph thread did though, he starts a thread making claims that could be easily verified if he wanted with very little effort on his part....but he decided to put significantly more effort into trolling and avoiding the thing that would validate his claims.

Edited by dupeddonk
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4 hours ago, dupeddonk said:

If he could actually do what he's trying to convince people he can do, it wouldn't be hard at all to provide actual verifiable data that what he claims to be true actually is.  I think the best way to do it would be simply give us a heads up before he started playing next and agree before hand to post all bet ids. 

Seems pretty clear this will end up the same way the limbo graph thread did though, he starts a thread making claims that could be easily verified if he wanted with very little effort on his part....but he decided to put significantly more effort into trolling and avoiding the thing that would validate his claims.

I am perfectly open to reasonable requests however I do not take instruction from someone who repeatedly attacks anything I post, purely on the basis of assumptions they have made and admit to operating under.

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18 minutes ago, Ghostnipple said:

I am perfectly open to reasonable requests however I do not take instruction from someone who repeatedly attacks anything I post, purely on the basis of assumptions they have made and admit to operating under.

it is hit and miss consider that your stake ratio is about 1:10 you have arround 9 loosing  bets on 1 wining :) so either good bankroll managment or luck :D

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18 hours ago, dupeddonk said:

No you can't.

 

Can't just ignore all the times you're not accurate at all when determining your accuracy.  

ding ding ding

Really nothing to take away from looking at 6 bets. I mean good job, congrats.  But come on now.

So you think its easy? ok show me, match the two cash outs below 500x and 100x at the same bet amount. If you believe you can achieve this 5% of the time prove it. YOu stand to make considerable profit at 500x and 100x. The last time I asked you to put money behind your words you would not. I doubt you will do it this time either.

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