How do 'seeds' work?

[ukstreamer]

Does a seed have memory?  Are they supposed to pay out a certain RTP or something, or do they have a set amount of 130x and 1000x hits that they need to do mathematically speaking?
Or is Plinko a lot like a slot in that even if you do 400,000 drops/spins, you don't actually have to hit a 1000x win due to the laws of the super large numbers that the RTP is based on?

[bitpopsy]

I had similar questions when I started studying about provable fairness. Let me answer, very specifically to your questions;

1. Seed has no memory. It doesn't remember the previous rolls and doesn't roll the next number based on the previous roll. Let me give you an example, say a seed rolled 0.00 on dice, it could also roll 0.00 on the very next roll. However, the odds of that happening is very slim. But, it does happen. 

2. RTP - Fundamentally called House Edge when we talk about the original games. Let me give you a simple example: When you play dice on 2x, you see that you should roll over 50.50 or under 49.50. In both cases, it should be 50.00 for us to have an equal chance as the house. So, the casino is cutting us off from few numbers to have an edge over us. However, the house edge doesn't reflect in few rolls. You could target any multiplier and keep winning for a very long period of time. However, the opposite could also happen.

So, coming back to your question - it doesn't have any set of numbers. But, if you keep rolling indefinitely, it will even out.

3. Plinko : The odds of hitting a 1000x is approx. 1 out of 33,000. We must also remember that every roll is independent. So, based on the seed/luck - it could go 400k or even 1M without hitting a 1000x. However, not hitting 1000x in 400k is extremely rare, but gambling always has its surprises. You could hit that 1000x in 1 roll, or as you mentioned 400k+ rolls.

Suggestion: Broadly, it doesn't matter what your seed is in the long term. But, to avoid dry runs in the short term, keep changing your seed every specific number of rolls, this will help you in achieving your goal faster, without having dry runs. I would prefer doing 10k/5k rolls on each seed instead of going all out on a single seed on plinko.

All the numbers we laid out here are based on mathematical models, and can only be concluded when we do billions of rolls. For an average gambler, who does few thousand rolls per day/week/month, these statistics don't reflect much. But, it gives you an understanding of the game.

[flobits]

35 minutes ago, bitpopsy said:

I had similar questions when I started studying about provable fairness. Let me answer, very specifically to your questions;

1. Seed has no memory. It doesn't remember the previous rolls and doesn't roll the next number based on the previous roll. Let me give you an example, say a seed rolled 0.00 on dice, it could also roll 0.00 on the very next roll. However, the odds of that happening is very slim. But, it does happen. 

2. RTP - Fundamentally called House Edge when we talk about the original games. Let me give you a simple example: When you play dice on 2x, you see that you should roll over 50.50 or under 49.50. In both cases, it should be 50.00 for us to have an equal chance as the house. So, the casino is cutting us off from few numbers to have an edge over us. However, the house edge doesn't reflect in few rolls. You could target any multiplier and keep winning for a very long period of time. However, the opposite could also happen.

So, coming back to your question - it doesn't have any set of numbers. But, if you keep rolling indefinitely, it will even out.

3. Plinko : The odds of hitting a 1000x is approx. 1 out of 33,000. We must also remember that every roll is independent. So, based on the seed/luck - it could go 400k or even 1M without hitting a 1000x. However, not hitting 1000x in 400k is extremely rare, but gambling always has its surprises. You could hit that 1000x in 1 roll, or as you mentioned 400k+ rolls.

Suggestion: Broadly, it doesn't matter what your seed is in the long term. But, to avoid dry runs in the short term, keep changing your seed every specific number of rolls, this will help you in achieving your goal faster, without having dry runs. I would prefer doing 10k/5k rolls on each seed instead of going all out on a single seed on plinko.

All the numbers we laid out here are based on mathematical models, and can only be concluded when we do billions of rolls. For an average gambler, who does few thousand rolls per day/week/month, these statistics don't reflect much. But, it gives you an understanding of the game.

you're telling him to refresh his seed every 10k/5k rolls? isnt that the most stupidest thing to do .. ( not flaming you ), but you're giving him a bad tip to be honest, refreshing / changing the seed is the way to actually lose more on Stake .. unless you want to change your seed for stats, you shouldn't change it.

[mementomori]

41 minutes ago, bitpopsy said:

I had similar questions when I started studying about provable fairness. Let me answer, very specifically to your questions;

1. Seed has no memory. It doesn't remember the previous rolls and doesn't roll the next number based on the previous roll. Let me give you an example, say a seed rolled 0.00 on dice, it could also roll 0.00 on the very next roll. However, the odds of that happening is very slim. But, it does happen. 

2. RTP - Fundamentally called House Edge when we talk about the original games. Let me give you a simple example: When you play dice on 2x, you see that you should roll over 50.50 or under 49.50. In both cases, it should be 50.00 for us to have an equal chance as the house. So, the casino is cutting us off from few numbers to have an edge over us. However, the house edge doesn't reflect in few rolls. You could target any multiplier and keep winning for a very long period of time. However, the opposite could also happen.

So, coming back to your question - it doesn't have any set of numbers. But, if you keep rolling indefinitely, it will even out.

3. Plinko : The odds of hitting a 1000x is approx. 1 out of 33,000. We must also remember that every roll is independent. So, based on the seed/luck - it could go 400k or even 1M without hitting a 1000x. However, not hitting 1000x in 400k is extremely rare, but gambling always has its surprises. You could hit that 1000x in 1 roll, or as you mentioned 400k+ rolls.

Suggestion: Broadly, it doesn't matter what your seed is in the long term. But, to avoid dry runs in the short term, keep changing your seed every specific number of rolls, this will help you in achieving your goal faster, without having dry runs. I would prefer doing 10k/5k rolls on each seed instead of going all out on a single seed on plinko.

All the numbers we laid out here are based on mathematical models, and can only be concluded when we do billions of rolls. For an average gambler, who does few thousand rolls per day/week/month, these statistics don't reflect much. But, it gives you an understanding of the game.

Great explanation!

[bitpopsy]

4 minutes ago, flobits said:

you're telling him to refresh his seed every 10k/5k rolls? isnt that the most stupidest thing to do .. ( not flaming you ), but you're giving him a bad tip to be honest, refreshing / changing the seed is the way to actually lose more on Stake .. unless you want to change your seed for stats, you shouldn't change it.

Well, everyone has their own way of gambling. Some prefer to change seed, some don't. I know that it's hard to change seed after you have invested so much in a specific seed, but it's one way to avoid dry runs. However, it really doesn't matter whether you change it or not in the long term.

[lazbakkal49]

i dont thing so my ide is dont change it so more mybe ones a day

[Coral35]

from what i understood, its basically predetermined results for the game u play. so if u change ur seed, results would have different pattern/order etc

[ukstreamer]

On 10/19/2021 at 1:03 PM, bitpopsy said:

I had similar questions when I started studying about provable fairness. Let me answer, very specifically to your questions;

1. Seed has no memory. It doesn't remember the previous rolls and doesn't roll the next number based on the previous roll. Let me give you an example, say a seed rolled 0.00 on dice, it could also roll 0.00 on the very next roll. However, the odds of that happening is very slim. But, it does happen. 

2. RTP - Fundamentally called House Edge when we talk about the original games. Let me give you a simple example: When you play dice on 2x, you see that you should roll over 50.50 or under 49.50. In both cases, it should be 50.00 for us to have an equal chance as the house. So, the casino is cutting us off from few numbers to have an edge over us. However, the house edge doesn't reflect in few rolls. You could target any multiplier and keep winning for a very long period of time. However, the opposite could also happen.

So, coming back to your question - it doesn't have any set of numbers. But, if you keep rolling indefinitely, it will even out.

3. Plinko : The odds of hitting a 1000x is approx. 1 out of 33,000. We must also remember that every roll is independent. So, based on the seed/luck - it could go 400k or even 1M without hitting a 1000x. However, not hitting 1000x in 400k is extremely rare, but gambling always has its surprises. You could hit that 1000x in 1 roll, or as you mentioned 400k+ rolls.

Suggestion: Broadly, it doesn't matter what your seed is in the long term. But, to avoid dry runs in the short term, keep changing your seed every specific number of rolls, this will help you in achieving your goal faster, without having dry runs. I would prefer doing 10k/5k rolls on each seed instead of going all out on a single seed on plinko.

All the numbers we laid out here are based on mathematical models, and can only be concluded when we do billions of rolls. For an average gambler, who does few thousand rolls per day/week/month, these statistics don't reflect much. But, it gives you an understanding of the game.

okay, so what do you suggest I do then with my current Plinko seed.  I am over 78,000 drops in without hitting the 1000x.  It's also been a very dry seed with very few 130x hits related to the amount of drops.  (I am down about 0.69btc-ish on Plinko trying to chase that goddamn 1000x).

Is there an RTP baked in to the seed itself, in that if I stay on the seed the "luck" should change and I should start to see a few more wins because I'm 'behind', so to speak.  Or am I way way off seeing any kind of real change in the return I will see, and I might as well switch seed as it's the same as being on the current one?

[bitpopsy]

3 hours ago, ukstreamer said:

okay, so what do you suggest I do then with my current Plinko seed.  I am over 78,000 drops in without hitting the 1000x.  It's also been a very dry seed with very few 130x hits related to the amount of drops.  (I am down about 0.69btc-ish on Plinko trying to chase that goddamn 1000x).

Is there an RTP baked in to the seed itself, in that if I stay on the seed the "luck" should change and I should start to see a few more wins because I'm 'behind', so to speak.  Or am I way way off seeing any kind of real change in the return I will see, and I might as well switch seed as it's the same as being on the current one?

It's a common psychology(gamblers fallacy) that - since we didn't get anything for soo many rolls, we think that, it is bound to get good hits later. But, this is not the reality, every roll is independent and every roll can be as dead as the previous roll or could keep hitting bigger multi's. 

You are already drowned way deep. If I was you, I would try to get something out of the seed. I would suggest to try get something out of seed, if you can. Not a 1000x but maybe couple of 130's can recover a bit. I know it's hard to move on at this point - you could also try my alternate suggestion.

I hope you are aware that - you shouldn't play any other original games as stake uses the same seed for all stake original games. 

Alternate suggestion: You can keep this account aside, and play original games on other alt account, and whenever you get good profit, drop few balls on this seed. A seed cannot go dry indefinitely, it will hit at some point for sure. But, we cannot say with 100% certainty, how good the seed can perform and also for how long. Take few good hits and run.

Also, 78k rolls is nothing when we look at the larger picture. We cannot conclude anything based on these number of rolls. You had a bad run, it could continue or might turn around. 

RTP and seed - RTP is not bound to a seed, but its bound to several millions and billions of rolls. No matter how many times you change or don't change - RTP doesn't change. 

As mentioned, we are gambling here, so nothing can be said with 100% certainty. I hope your luck turns around and the seed gives you good hits.

[ukstreamer]

29 minutes ago, bitpopsy said:

It's a common psychology(gamblers fallacy) that - since we didn't get anything for soo many rolls, we think that, it is bound to get good hits later. But, this is not the reality, every roll is independent and every roll can be as dead as the previous roll or could keep hitting bigger multi's. 

You are already drowned way deep. If I was you, I would try to get something out of the seed. I would suggest to try get something out of seed, if you can. Not a 1000x but maybe couple of 130's can recover a bit. I know it's hard to move on at this point - you could also try my alternate suggestion.

I hope you are aware that - you shouldn't play any other original games as stake uses the same seed for all stake original games. 

Alternate suggestion: You can keep this account aside, and play original games on other alt account, and whenever you get good profit, drop few balls on this seed. A seed cannot go dry indefinitely, it will hit at some point for sure. But, we cannot say with 100% certainty, how good the seed can perform and also for how long. Take few good hits and run.

Also, 78k rolls is nothing when we look at the larger picture. We cannot conclude anything based on these number of rolls. You had a bad run, it could continue or might turn around. 

RTP and seed - RTP is not bound to a seed, but its bound to several millions and billions of rolls. No matter how many times you change or don't change - RTP doesn't change. 

As mentioned, we are gambling here, so nothing can be said with 100% certainty. I hope your luck turns around and the seed gives you good hits.

thanks Bitpopsy.  This is all very useful information!

 

I don't know understand the relevance of sharing a seed from plinko to other original though?  I would have thought a plinko 1000x drop has nothing to do with a mines or dice sequence.   If it's truly an RNG with house edge built in, then the seed shouldn't really matter.  I guess this all forms part of my lack of understanding of what a seed is and how it affects gameplay, compared to slots, for instance.  (is a seed a predetermined sequence that will have a win of "up to 500x, game permitting on nonce 324,764", for instance?)

[bitpopsy]

3 hours ago, ukstreamer said:

thanks Bitpopsy.  This is all very useful information!

 

I don't know understand the relevance of sharing a seed from plinko to other original though?  I would have thought a plinko 1000x drop has nothing to do with a mines or dice sequence.   If it's truly an RNG with house edge built in, then the seed shouldn't really matter.  I guess this all forms part of my lack of understanding of what a seed is and how it affects gameplay, compared to slots, for instance.  (is a seed a predetermined sequence that will have a win of "up to 500x, game permitting on nonce 324,764", for instance?)

Looks like you are new to the concept of how provable fairness works. 

You have 3 major parameters in PF:

1. Client seed
2. Server Seed

3. Nounce

These 3 parameters are common for all original games. So, basically, if you played few rounds of other stake original games, you skip those rolls on the other stake original games.

Let's say you started with a fresh seed and played dice for about 1000 rolls. Which means 1000 rolls on other games are already generated and skipped (since you played the other game).

This can be good or a bad thing.

Good side - Let's say you played dice for 1000 rolls and then switched to plinko. Maybe those 1000 rolls are dead rolls on plinko and you entered into plinko the right time.

Bad Side - You might have missed a 1000x or 130x in those 1000 rolls and you entered the game when it went dry.

RNG for slots works differently:

Slots RNG is session based. Whenever you start a session they take few parameters and generate the results. So, you might have different results if you rolled the slot today, later sometime today or maybe some other time.

But, when we talk about originals, the moment you set the seed - your results are already generated and not dependent on the time factor/session.

Yes once you set client/server seed, a specific NOUNCE already has the result for all the original games.

Quote

In Eddie's words - once you set your client seed - YOUR FATE IS SEALED.

However, let me also tell you something important: If you understand the math/probability/fairness behind original games, it will give you an understanding of what's happening. But, in the long run it doesn't matter. Even with perfect play, you are bound to lose 1%(minimum) of the wager amount, which is the house edge. 

I would suggest you to watch some videos on youtube on how provable fairness works. That really helps your game play - especially on originals.

[Bandito]

On 10/19/2021 at 5:03 AM, bitpopsy said:

I had similar questions when I started studying about provable fairness. Let me answer, very specifically to your questions;

1. Seed has no memory. It doesn't remember the previous rolls and doesn't roll the next number based on the previous roll. Let me give you an example, say a seed rolled 0.00 on dice, it could also roll 0.00 on the very next roll. However, the odds of that happening is very slim. But, it does happen. 

2. RTP - Fundamentally called House Edge when we talk about the original games. Let me give you a simple example: When you play dice on 2x, you see that you should roll over 50.50 or under 49.50. In both cases, it should be 50.00 for us to have an equal chance as the house. So, the casino is cutting us off from few numbers to have an edge over us. However, the house edge doesn't reflect in few rolls. You could target any multiplier and keep winning for a very long period of time. However, the opposite could also happen.

So, coming back to your question - it doesn't have any set of numbers. But, if you keep rolling indefinitely, it will even out.

3. Plinko : The odds of hitting a 1000x is approx. 1 out of 33,000. We must also remember that every roll is independent. So, based on the seed/luck - it could go 400k or even 1M without hitting a 1000x. However, not hitting 1000x in 400k is extremely rare, but gambling always has its surprises. You could hit that 1000x in 1 roll, or as you mentioned 400k+ rolls.

Suggestion: Broadly, it doesn't matter what your seed is in the long term. But, to avoid dry runs in the short term, keep changing your seed every specific number of rolls, this will help you in achieving your goal faster, without having dry runs. I would prefer doing 10k/5k rolls on each seed instead of going all out on a single seed on plinko.

All the numbers we laid out here are based on mathematical models, and can only be concluded when we do billions of rolls. For an average gambler, who does few thousand rolls per day/week/month, these statistics don't reflect much. But, it gives you an understanding of the game.

Thanks for sharing such good info. i have a question that is a little more specific. So is there any info you can give on slot providers and how their seeds work for each user? Like hacksaw gaming , it seems like its the same seed across all slots , which means if you get a nice win on Toshi Video Club then immediately go to Wanted Dead or a Wild , your still in the same seed and may see losses before next big win? If you can provide any info on how providers use seeds for users and their slots i would appreciate it . I was going to message you but my account is too new i think.

[Wutterolf]

how you even changing seeds was reading all replies couldn't find answer on that  

[ROkenTratENsaV]

4 minutes ago, Wutterolf said:

how you even changing seeds was reading all replies couldn't find answer on that  

Open any Stake Originals game. There is Fairness button at bottom and it opens popup where you can change it  

[Wutterolf]

On 1/31/2022 at 4:51 AM, ROkenTratENsaV said:

Open any Stake Originals game. There is Fairness button at bottom and it opens popup where you can change it  

thanks a lot