(Scam?) Dice and probability

[vrecluse]

Greetings everyone!

I'm pretty sure most of us are familiar with the game Dice that is on Stake and the fully customizable actions we can have in the game, changing bet sizes, decrease increase win chance, auto betting, auto stop on profit/loss, etc, list goes on.

 

However I'm here today, to talk about if dice is completely truly random and truly not controlled by stake what-so-ever.

I would appreciate a confirmation by Stake Staff, or someone that has any clue about this.

I'll give you an example:

You set the win % to 96% that means you have a 4% chance of losing.

That means out of every dice roll, you have 4% chance of losing, ONCE.

The probability of losing once, is 4%, then you win after that, and the probability resets again to 4%.

However, what is the probability to lose two times in a row you may ask? Well, that's simple math:

(4/100) *  (4/100)  = 1/625*100 (percentage)

This equals to 0.16% chance of losing TWO times in a row. Is it possible? Yes, it is, it's a small chance, but its there.

However, now one might think, what is the odds of you losing THREE times in a row?

(4/100) *  (4/100) * (4/100) = 1/15625 * 100 = 0.0064%

The odds of losing 3 times in a row is 1 to 15625, which equals to 0.0064%, which is a very slim probability, but still possible, because it's not 0% (period), however very unlikely right?

What made me make this post is, between 3 friends of mine, and me, we wanted to test how much we can lose in a row on Dice, with this percentage, and see if its completely random, and not controlled by stake, as in other words, literally a scam, which is illegal, and can be reported.

Now it might be a big coincidence, or not, but all 4 of us, did lose 3 times in a row with those settings, on the same day, almost at the same hour, by starting the auto-bet together. We sat there about 3 hours on Dice and it kicked it, 3 losses in a row, has this happened to anyone else?

 

The dice settings were on 96% chance winning, 4 roll over.

 

Do let me know, and please someone from @Stake, confirm this.

[dejanbg]

"probability"

[zvujas]

I once needed to wager some $ quick and did 25€ per dice roll autobet on 100 bets amd i lost in total more than 200€... Till this day i dont brlieve that's possible 

[vrecluse]

3 minutes ago, zvujas said:

I once needed to wager some $ quick and did 25€ per dice roll autobet on 100 bets amd i lost in total more than 200€... Till this day i dont brlieve that's possible 

With what settings? 50/50? 98%? etc?

[zvujas]

Just now, vrecluse said:

With what settings? 50/50? 98%? etc?

98%. Ive also seen streamer Quick lose 14 bets in matter of 3minutes on 98%

[vrecluse]

3 minutes ago, zvujas said:

98%. Ive also seen streamer Quick lose 14 bets in matter of 3minutes on 98%

Losing 14 bets in a matter of 3 minutes is possible, quite rare but it's normal, as all in all, its 2% chance, however, the sketchy possibility we are talking about is that we lose several times in a row with these percentages.

I'll make an example for you;

To lose 2 losses in a row with 98% chance

That's  2/100 * 2/100 = 1/2500 so 1 out of 2500 odds. That's 0.04% chance of it happening, these things are possible, but when it happens very frequently, something is sketchy.

[MrBluntMx]

"Stake originals are so cool and juicy"

[billcolton]

2 days ago i needed to wager 3k more i go to dice on 98% ofc i SWEAR im not jocking in 77 bets 6 of them was lost.....how its this 98% win rate...and i was wondering if beted on 1% chance i would have won 600$ in 77 bets? im pretty sure i wouldnt.......so yea  

[Zulu189]

Losing one bet out of 15625 is definitely nothing rare. As you've indicated, it should happen, well, on average, once every 15625 rolls (lol). My current strategy has one chance in 100,000 to bust. It just busted 4 times in less than 40,000 rolls today. Again, unlucky, but nothing crazy.

Now, it does sound suspicious that 4 of you would bust at around the same time, but it can definitely be a coincidence. It also depends on how many bets per second/minute/hour you all are able to produce. The more bets you can pump, the more likely you are to bust at around the same time.

[vrecluse]

11 minutes ago, billcolton said:

2 days ago i needed to wager 3k more i go to dice on 98% ofc i SWEAR im not jocking in 77 bets 6 of them was lost.....how its this 98% win rate...and i was wondering if beted on 1% chance i would have won 600$ in 77 bets? im pretty sure i wouldnt.......so yea  

So if I logically understood this, you made 77 bets, with 98% chance of winning, and you lost 6 of them.

That's a loss rate of 7.79%, and the odds of it happening on 2%, is 3/1925, which is 0.15% chance of it happening. So you got very "unlucky"

 

[billcolton]

yes exactly ....its not ''unlucky'' its pure scam

[vrecluse]

9 minutes ago, Zulu189 said:

Losing one bet out of 15625 is definitely nothing rare. As you've indicated, it should happen, well, on average, once every 15625 rolls (lol). My current strategy has one chance in 100,000 to bust. It just busted 4 times in less than 40,000 rolls today. Again, unlucky, but nothing crazy.

Now, it does sound suspicious that 4 of you would bust at around the same time, but it can definitely be a coincidence. It also depends on how many bets per second/minute/hour you all are able to produce. The more bets you can pump, the more likely you are to bust at around the same time.

Yes, that's correct, it is bound to happen, and that's just math, but again what made me make this post is that how it happened to all of us almost around the same time.

Just because the odds of it happening once every 15625 rolls, doesn't mean it should happen, it's not a definite, it is a possibility, right?

It is possible that after 15625 rolls that is happens, however, its also very unlikely that is happens, but that it happens to all of us, it's kinda sketchy.

By the way @Zulu189, the probability of what just happened to you today, 1/100000 you said?

That's 0.001% chance of it occurring, and you said it happened 4 times correct? That's 4/40000 * 0.001%, those odds equals to 1 in 10th million, that's 1/10 000 000, which equals to 0.00001% chance of you busting 4 times in the odds of 1/10000 in 40K rolls,

in other words, you would've most likely won the lottery today if you tried to choose 6 numbers and getting them all correct, as in the odds to the lottery is 1/13.9 Mill.

[cjellay]

Even in 1.0102 multi. 5 bets and it goes to lose. 

[hungryharpy]

1 hour ago, vrecluse said:

Greetings everyone!

I'm pretty sure most of us are familiar with the game Dice that is on Stake and the fully customizable actions we can have in the game, changing bet sizes, decrease increase win chance, auto betting, auto stop on profit/loss, etc, list goes on.

 

However I'm here today, to talk about if dice is completely truly random and truly not controlled by stake what-so-ever.

I would appreciate a confirmation by Stake Staff, or someone that has any clue about this.

I'll give you an example:

You set the win % to 96% that means you have a 4% chance of losing.

That means out of every dice roll, you have 4% chance of losing, ONCE.

The probability of losing once, is 4%, then you win after that, and the probability resets again to 4%.

However, what is the probability to lose two times in a row you may ask? Well, that's simple math:

(4/100) *  (4/100)  = 1/625*100 (percentage)

This equals to 0.16% chance of losing TWO times in a row. Is it possible? Yes, it is, it's a small chance, but its there.

However, now one might think, what is the odds of you losing THREE times in a row?

(4/100) *  (4/100) * (4/100) = 1/15625 * 100 = 0.0064%

The odds of losing 3 times in a row is 1 to 15625, which equals to 0.0064%, which is a very slim probability, but still possible, because it's not 0% (period), however very unlikely right?

What made me make this post is, between 3 friends of mine, and me, we wanted to test how much we can lose in a row on Dice, with this percentage, and see if its completely random, and not controlled by stake, as in other words, literally a scam, which is illegal, and can be reported.

Now it might be a big coincidence, or not, but all 4 of us, did lose 3 times in a row with those settings, on the same day, almost at the same hour, by starting the auto-bet together. We sat there about 3 hours on Dice and it kicked it, 3 losses in a row, has this happened to anyone else?

 

The dice settings were on 96% chance winning, 4 roll over.

 

Do let me know, and please someone from @Stake, confirm this.

I believe you, don't take it as me doubting what you wrote. But from other forum posts I've read, nothing matters unless you have video proof of it happening. So my suggestion to you is get your friends and yourself to record the sessions and then maybe you'll get some sort of answer. Also be prepared for answers saying you don't understand how statistics and probably work, they'll come soon. 

[vrecluse]

1 minute ago, hungryharpy said:

I believe you, don't take it as me doubting what you wrote. But from other forum posts I've read, nothing matters unless you have video proof of it happening. So my suggestion to you is get your friends and yourself to record the sessions and then maybe you'll get some sort of answer. Also be prepared for answers saying you don't understand how statistics and probably work, they'll come soon. 

Thank you so much for taking your time to reply to this post and giving your insight,

Yes I do understand your point of view and the proof is missing here and you guys can only take my word for it, but I doubt someone would come up with such a story just to get attention, after all I'm not asking for anything in return from anyone, I'm just stating exactly what happened!

I'd love to see someone come here and telling me I don't understand probability and statistics, and we'll see how that conversation will go for them.

[Kirito89]

So you're saying , that  that after 3 hours of dicing , something happened that has a 1 in a 15625 chance , out of curiosity , how many bets did you go through til that happened , cause at this point what I'm mostly trying to figure out is if you're dumb or faking it cause to me it sounds like "  I've placed 50000 bets , and something that theoretically would happen every 15625 bets happened to me , am I being scammed"

 

[vrecluse]

4 minutes ago, Kirito89 said:

So you're saying , that  that after 3 hours of dicing , something happened that has a 1 in a 15625 chance , out of curiosity , how many bets did you go through til that happened , cause at this point what I'm mostly trying to figure out is if you're dumb or faking it cause to me it sounds like "  I've placed 50000 bets , and something that theoretically would happen every 15625 bets happened to me , am I being scammed"

 

When you re-read the post, and answer like a human, I'll treat you like one, but for now I'll treat you like an animal and ignore you since you're obviously a lesser intellectual creature.

I didn't create this post because I LOST, I know how odds work, and I know the possibility of it working. Re-read the post and answer, animal.

[LeNaor]

1 hour ago, vrecluse said:

Greetings everyone!

I'm pretty sure most of us are familiar with the game Dice that is on Stake and the fully customizable actions we can have in the game, changing bet sizes, decrease increase win chance, auto betting, auto stop on profit/loss, etc, list goes on.

 

However I'm here today, to talk about if dice is completely truly random and truly not controlled by stake what-so-ever.

I would appreciate a confirmation by Stake Staff, or someone that has any clue about this.

I'll give you an example:

You set the win % to 96% that means you have a 4% chance of losing.

That means out of every dice roll, you have 4% chance of losing, ONCE.

The probability of losing once, is 4%, then you win after that, and the probability resets again to 4%.

However, what is the probability to lose two times in a row you may ask? Well, that's simple math:

(4/100) *  (4/100)  = 1/625*100 (percentage)

This equals to 0.16% chance of losing TWO times in a row. Is it possible? Yes, it is, it's a small chance, but its there.

However, now one might think, what is the odds of you losing THREE times in a row?

(4/100) *  (4/100) * (4/100) = 1/15625 * 100 = 0.0064%

The odds of losing 3 times in a row is 1 to 15625, which equals to 0.0064%, which is a very slim probability, but still possible, because it's not 0% (period), however very unlikely right?

What made me make this post is, between 3 friends of mine, and me, we wanted to test how much we can lose in a row on Dice, with this percentage, and see if its completely random, and not controlled by stake, as in other words, literally a scam, which is illegal, and can be reported.

Now it might be a big coincidence, or not, but all 4 of us, did lose 3 times in a row with those settings, on the same day, almost at the same hour, by starting the auto-bet together. We sat there about 3 hours on Dice and it kicked it, 3 losses in a row, has this happened to anyone else?

 

The dice settings were on 96% chance winning, 4 roll over.

 

Do let me know, and please someone from @Stake, confirm this.

my opinion is, stake does has control over the dice or any stake originals games. i had 3 losses in a row when i did roll over 2.00  / win change 98%. after 100bets and i lost so much money on crazy ways on that dice. i recommend you to play slot, slot had RTP, you gave a pretty good explanation, i guess you can find the answer there.. 

[vrecluse]

Just now, ruvi said:

Hey,

Your probability calculation is incorrect. That is, there is no dependence between the first bet and the second bet.

 

English is not my mother tongue so I hope you understand me

 

You and I went to the roulette table. In the first round you bet $ 100 on black - Came red. In the second round you bet $ 100 on black and I bet $ 100 on black too.

By calculating your probability: you have 25 percent red import (50 percent * 50 percent) and I have 50 percent.  And it is not possible that you and I need exactly the same thing and everyone has different chances of winning.

 

I mean, the probability of winning each bet is calculated on its own and there is no relationship between the probability of winning the first bet and the probability of winning the second bet. 

By the way, it has nothing to do with whether the cube game is reliable or not.  I only wrote about probability if you understood what I was writing.

We are not talking with relation and correlation of bets being corresponding with one another, I do know that's not how probability works and percentage, that each bet is independent, we are talking about the odds of these bets coming after each other in a row, that's probability.

Every bet is x% chance of losing and x% chance of winning, and that never changes, it is static, we know that.

The probability is calculated by the x amount of a probability happening over x times. That's where odds comes in, and in other words Numerators / Denominators.

The % of losing in this scenario is always going to be 4%, every roll has a 4% chance of losing, independent of the next roll or the previous, they have no correlation to one another, even a child knows that, however the probability of you hitting 4% over, and over, and over, is math, that can be calculated to probability and chances, with odds.

 

In this case 4/100*4/100*4/100 or (4%)*(4%)*(4%) = 1/15625 = 0.064%. That's common math, it's not the percentage of dice we're calculating, we're calculating the odds of it HAPPENING three times in a row.

[Kirito89]

37 minutes ago, vrecluse said:

When you re-read the post, and answer like a human, I'll treat you like one, but for now I'll treat you like an animal and ignore you since you're obviously a lesser intellectual creature.

I didn't create this post because I LOST, I know how odds work, and I know the possibility of it working. Re-read the post and answer, animal.

I am treating you as a human , and unfortunately humans are dumb ,  while you seem to be there on top with the best of them . That's it ,  it baffles me that you actually have a clue about maths and probabilities , but yet you still chose to be dumb .   Kind of similar to "scientists" that believe 100% the world is flat.

[randomcore]

1 hour ago, MrBluntMx said:

"Stake originals are so cool and juicy"

Indeed.. playing Dice using Dicebot is cool and juicy! 😎

[vrecluse]

15 minutes ago, Kirito89 said:

I am treating you as a human , and unfortunately humans are dumb ,  while you seem to be there on top with the best of them . That's it ,  it baffles me that you actually have a clue about maths and probabilities , but yet you still chose to be dumb .   Kind of similar to "scientists" that believe 100% the world is flat.

Again, this post wasn't made because the probability of odds happened to me, this post was made because it seemed sketchy that it happened to the three friends of mine and me around the same time, probability is a chance, not a definite. Even if its 1/100 odds, doesn't mean it will happen definitely after 100, but it's a probability, it can happen after 1, or a million, or ten millions, small chance but still possible.

 

Point being is, that the probability of odds happened to all 4 of us around the same time, which is sketchy, which is why this post was made. Again, I gain nothing from this, I am not asking for a refund or anything of the sort, I'm simply asking for Stake to come forward and answer fair and square about their system, as a Game Developer, and Programmer, Web Dev, and other past experiences I have, I do know RNG is not always truly RNG, and it just feels like these odds are being manipulated after a certain amount of time, but that's just my own two cents on this, I'm not saying it is.

 

19 minutes ago, ruvi said:

If you agree with me that each bet is on its own then your calculation is incorrect.

(4%)*(4%)Duplication * This is only if there is a connection.

 

Check the reliability of the dice game should play at least 1 million rounds on a dollar (or other amount) and check if there is a loss of 10000 $ 1 percent home advantage.

This is how probability is tested. Remember !  Probability is not mathematics but statistics and therefore multiplication works incorrectly.

And anyway in my opinion in the original games including the cube the home advantage is more than 1 percent

 

Good luck always!

 

 

I'm sorry but I don't think you understand math properly.

If you hold a marble in your hand, close your eyes and drop it on your keyboard and it hits the letter G, and you pick up the marble again, and repeat the process, and hits the letter G again, these are probabilities, chances and percentages, odds, whatever you want to call them, they have no correlation with one another, but every time an occasion happens that has a % chance of happening, and it repeats its pattern, it makes it more unlikely for it to happen again if the probabilities are large enough.

 

Again that's just basic math and I'm not here to teach math, it's like me telling you I'm thinking of a number, and you try to guess it, between 1 to 100, you might guess once right, and twice, but the more you guess right in a row, the less chance you will guess right the next time, that's just common math, even though the odds doesn't change, its still 1/100.

 

In other words, any ODD that is repeated in the same pattern is multiplied by Numerators / Denominators.

If 1/100 is correct then its 1/100, if its twice in a row its 1/100 * 1/100, three times in a row, 1/100 * 1/100 * 1/100. This is common calculation and basic, we learn that in Fifth Grade in elementary school.

[vrecluse]

6 hours ago, ruvi said:

I understand math well.

So I asked you in the first post how it is possible 2 people need black in roulette and person 1 has 75 percent to win because in the first round red came and person 2 has 50 percent to win because it is his first bet.

In your cube the probability is 4% +4% 

And again I hope you understand my English

Don't worry your English isn't the problem here.

Thank for your answers.

 

About your roulette answer, again, you are calculating it wrong, you don't understand math quite well.

 

Look up Monty Hall problem on Youtube, maybe you will understand, but to answer your question;

If the Roulette table is linked and we are sharing the same table, the table itself has a less probable chance of hitting RED Twice in a row, and three times, and four times, the chance becomes smaller, and smaller, the more it rolls.

It's not US that gets the smaller chance of receiving the red, the individuals, it's the table itself, the roll.

If I was playing roulette and I bet on red 10 times in a row, and I received 2 black in a row, then 8 reds in a row after that, and then you come in, it doesn't mean I have a bigger chance of black next, and you have 50/50 just because you just joined. That's why they add previous numbers rolled in roulette, to show you the odds of probability.

But this is just common sense this is not what I'm talking about, the calculation process we are talking about is the probability of receiving the same roll over the course of time of many times, and that is probability caused by certain odds, and these odds becomes bigger and bigger of not receiving it again.

 

Again, English isn't a problem, your way of knowing and calculating probability is.