BJ calculation

[maverick528]

I was preparing to post this article and now it seems is not that useful anymore, but decided to publish it anyway, I think it is a good way to learn about probability and making calculations about it.

And also because the results that you can Google are no good for Stake (because they are usually for using 1 or 2 decks of cards specifically).

 

So, what is the probability of getting 3 BlackJacks in a row (you or the banker) ?? (BJ is A and K, Q, J or 10 in any order).

 

The probability of getting an "A" is 1/13. So the probability of getting AK is 1/13*1/13 = 1/169.

So the probability of getting AK, AQ, AJ or A10 is 4/169.

Changing the order, the probability of getting KA, QA, JA or 10A is also 4/169.

So the probability of getting one BJ is 8/169.

Then the probability of getting 3 BJs in a row is 8/169 * 8/169 * 8/169 = 512/4826809, and this is a very small number indeed.

About 1 time every 9500 rolls.

 

(have not verified 100% this calculations, so this is open for questions/corrections).