I get the idea but focusing too much on player impact can miss the bigger picture when a whole squad’s playing with fresh confidence. Sometimes the collective vibe after a big win drowns out the stats.
I remember last season watching Lazio down two goals against Inter and my neighbor who actually played semi pro just pointed out their pressing structure hadn't broken at all so I let my bet ride, final score ended 3 2 to Lazio with an injury time winner.
I backed Real Madrid as huuge favorites once and they scraped by with a dodgy late penalty, so now I stick to underdogs just for the chaos when they pull it off.
I got a weird hunch that Luis Diaz breaks the deadlock early with some chaotic press up top, his odds are juicier than Jhon Duran right now and I feel like he just wants it more after the season he's had.
I love how you framed it as "your opponents don't just react to your cards", cause that's something a lot of people overlook til they sit at a table where everyone's watching every move you make. I tend to shift gears only if I ntice the other players are actually observant, otherwise I'll just ride whatever cards come my way.