Philip74 Posted August 19, 2018 #1 Posted August 19, 2018 I have been hearing many people complaining that the same people are winning the $2 discord giveaways, which I thought was strange, so I checked this out for Saturday and Sunday. I noted every winner and then counted how many times each person (usernames on discord) won. These are the stats: Saturday 5 time winners: 0 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 8 2 time winners: 16 1 time winners: 84 Sunday 5 time winners: 2 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 5 2 time winners: 26 1 time winners: 62 Of the 9 persons who won 3 or 4 times on Saturday, only 1 of them won 2 times on Sunday too, and only 3 of them won 1 time on Sunday too. Of the 8 persons who won 3 to 5 times on Sunday, 2 of them won twice on Saturday too and 1 of them won once on Saturday too. Overall, over the weekend 1 person won 7 times and 2 persons won 6 times. Overall, over the weekend 158 different persons won at least once. I personally won once on Sunday. Draw #983 on Sunday did not take place, so if you add up the winners you will find 1 missing. Those of you who stopped participating in the discord giveaways, because you found them unfair, might want to reconsider.
wry Posted August 19, 2018 #2 Posted August 19, 2018 Major kudos for actually compiling some data to shed some light on the situation! :tip of the hat: Is it easy to make multiple accounts on discord like it is on this forum and "cheat" the spirit of the giveaway that way? i.e. Is it possible that not every person on discord is unique? 158 unique winners is a lot, especially compared to how many are active here on the forum or in English chat on Stake. Again, nice job tracking the winners.
Philip74 Posted August 19, 2018 Author #3 Posted August 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, wry said: Major kudos for actually compiling some data to shed some light on the situation! :tip of the hat: Is it easy to make multiple accounts on discord like it is on this forum and "cheat" the spirit of the giveaway that way? i.e. Is it possible that not every person on discord is unique? 158 unique winners is a lot, especially compared to how many are active here on the forum or in English chat on Stake. Again, nice job tracking the winners. That is a valid question. I am a newbie on Discord, so I don't know the answer I am afraid. With my post I am mainly aiming to encourage stakers to participate in the giveaways, as it seems each of us has a fair chance of winning.
denildan Posted August 20, 2018 #4 Posted August 20, 2018 nice job bro this shows that the giveaways are not rigged
xtinepink Posted August 20, 2018 #5 Posted August 20, 2018 Great effort on doing this! It’s just a matter of “we all have our chances” lol. Good luck everyone
mayzee Posted August 20, 2018 #6 Posted August 20, 2018 wowm can i join on discord too? how to join there?
Philip74 Posted August 20, 2018 Author #7 Posted August 20, 2018 Just now, mayzee said: wowm can i join on discord too? how to join there? You can use this link to join discord https://discord.gg/qyrM5Vw
mayzee Posted August 20, 2018 #8 Posted August 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Philip74 said: You can use this link to join discord https://discord.gg/qyrM5Vw thanks for this
Lillyflow Posted August 20, 2018 #9 Posted August 20, 2018 I think still, in comparison to the number of participants in total, the repeats are very high and are absolutely indicative of a pattern, If this is a "night-bot giveaway" tool, it has very sensitive settings and I think people may be disqualifying themselves without knowing. The criteria could be more clear as to how one can be assured that they are on the list.... When you click the little gift multiple times- that may eliminate your entry or something. I don;t know.
Snike Posted August 20, 2018 #10 Posted August 20, 2018 Some say "Big effort for making this!" I'm sitting here asking myself if you got nothing to do lol Thanks for making that!!!
wngo123 Posted August 20, 2018 #11 Posted August 20, 2018 I won two times so far, but I see people winning 2 times in the row
Carollzinha Posted August 20, 2018 #12 Posted August 20, 2018 I loved the new discord, the exclusives (Stake.com) idea and obviously the giveaways.. the only thing I didnt like at all is that we are forced to join some random discord groups we dont really want to.. and the worst part, you cant leave these groups or you will no longer be exclusive.. I really have no idea who setted that rule but I really wish I could understand whats the purpose on that.. I loved the exclusives idea, I really do, but I wont stay in random groups that are mostly like full of spams only because someone want me to lol
Kate Posted August 20, 2018 #13 Posted August 20, 2018 19 hours ago, Philip74 said: I have been hearing many people complaining that the same people are winning the $2 discord giveaways, which I thought was strange, so I checked this out for Saturday and Sunday. I noted every winner and then counted how many times each person (usernames on discord) won. These are the stats: Saturday 5 time winners: 0 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 8 2 time winners: 16 1 time winners: 84 Sunday 5 time winners: 2 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 5 2 time winners: 26 1 time winners: 62 Of the 9 persons who won 3 or 4 times on Saturday, only 1 of them won 2 times on Sunday too, and only 3 of them won 1 time on Sunday too. Of the 8 persons who won 3 to 5 times on Sunday, 2 of them won twice on Saturday too and 1 of them won once on Saturday too. Overall, over the weekend 1 person won 7 times and 2 persons won 6 times. Overall, over the weekend 158 different persons won at least once. I personally won once on Sunday. Draw #983 on Sunday did not take place, so if you add up the winners you will find 1 missing. Those of you who stopped participating in the discord giveaways, because you found them unfair, might want to reconsider. Oh nice thanks for the data unfortunately i aint that lucky enough i guess.
Moderator maverick528 Posted August 20, 2018 Moderator #14 Posted August 20, 2018 19 hours ago, Philip74 said: I have been hearing many people complaining that the same people are winning the $2 discord giveaways, which I thought was strange, so I checked this out for Saturday and Sunday. I noted every winner and then counted how many times each person (usernames on discord) won. These are the stats: Saturday 5 time winners: 0 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 8 2 time winners: 16 1 time winners: 84 Sunday 5 time winners: 2 4 time winners: 1 3 time winners: 5 2 time winners: 26 1 time winners: 62 Of the 9 persons who won 3 or 4 times on Saturday, only 1 of them won 2 times on Sunday too, and only 3 of them won 1 time on Sunday too. Of the 8 persons who won 3 to 5 times on Sunday, 2 of them won twice on Saturday too and 1 of them won once on Saturday too. Overall, over the weekend 1 person won 7 times and 2 persons won 6 times. Overall, over the weekend 158 different persons won at least once. I personally won once on Sunday. Draw #983 on Sunday did not take place, so if you add up the winners you will find 1 missing. Those of you who stopped participating in the discord giveaways, because you found them unfair, might want to reconsider. For me this is not a well-done statistical study. Because you cut in two the sample data at a random time (probably 00:00 hours of your local time), divided in saturday and sunday. For me the only valid way to present this is to look at ALL giveaways from the start to the end and present only one table saying how much users won XX repeated times.
Kate Posted August 20, 2018 #15 Posted August 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, maverick528 said: For me this is not a well-done statistical study. Because you cut in two the sample data at a random time (probably 00:00 hours of your local time), divided in saturday and sunday. For me the only valid way to present this is to look at ALL giveaways from the start to the end and present only one table saying how much users won XX repeated times. Wait a second do you mean from the start when the discord giveaway started or like from the starting time ? In the way you said according to time zone its not that well but give him some credit to scroll through the damn thing and not see his name in the winnings . Also every Statistics to a site given by google could also be in their time if you know what i mean
wry Posted August 20, 2018 #17 Posted August 20, 2018 5 hours ago, maverick528 said: For me this is not a well-done statistical study. Mav, mav, mav, I'd like to see you do a statistical study on this that meets your own criteria! @Philip74 took the initiative to actually compile some data and add meaningfully to the discussion about the give aways. For that he should be lauded not criticized, especially given how much dreck shows up on these forums. Sampling is actually a pretty solid technique and widely used. Maybe you can use your influence with Stake and compile the data from the start like you want. That would be awesome. However, for me the real issue of how rigged it is is if its possible to create many alts on the discord channels easily. If it's as easy to create accounts on discord as it is on the forum I'd say 100% chance Stake's generosity is being exploited. I have to say I don't understand why Stake wants to push Discord so hard, with its own chat and forum not sure why send people to so many other places. Still, people respond to incentives and if you want people on Discord you'll get them, I hope Discord gives the site a cut for all the new users they bring in!
Shaniqua Posted August 21, 2018 #18 Posted August 21, 2018 how many unique participants? was that stat discussed and i missed it or? good post even if the stats are not published in the stake academic peer reviewed journal kekek
Moderator maverick528 Posted August 21, 2018 Moderator #19 Posted August 21, 2018 2 hours ago, wry said: Mav, mav, mav, I'd like to see you do a statistical study on this that meets your own criteria! @Philip74 took the initiative to actually compile some data and add meaningfully to the discussion about the give aways. For that he should be lauded not criticized, especially given how much dreck shows up on these forums. Sampling is actually a pretty solid technique and widely used. Maybe you can use your influence with Stake and compile the data from the start like you want. That would be awesome. However, for me the real issue of how rigged it is is if its possible to create many alts on the discord channels easily. If it's as easy to create accounts on discord as it is on the forum I'd say 100% chance Stake's generosity is being exploited. I have to say I don't understand why Stake wants to push Discord so hard, with its own chat and forum not sure why send people to so many other places. Still, people respond to incentives and if you want people on Discord you'll get them, I hope Discord gives the site a cut for all the new users they bring in! I think its very good that somebody did this. But for example if somebody won 2 times on saturday and 2 times on sunday, you only see it as part of the "2 times winners" group, a "normal" group, instead of somebody that won 4 times total (not so common). It is just an example to show that the "riggedness" concept can change a lot depending on how you look at the data. So yes, he should be lauded for the effort, but if I see something wrong I must point it anyway ....
Philip74 Posted August 21, 2018 Author #20 Posted August 21, 2018 I extended the period to 14/8-21/8, as some of you would like to see a bigger sample. The results are: 14 time winners: 1 13 time winners: 1 12 time winners: 3 11 time winners: 3 10 time winners: 4 9 time winners: 6 8 time winners: 3 7 time winners: 8 6 time winners: 14 5 time winners: 18 4 time winners: 26 3 time winners: 54 2 time winners: 67 1 time winners: 113 There is a total of 321 different discord names that won at least once in this period of 8 days. An interesting statistic is that 3 discord names won every day within this period, I am not implying anything, I am just saying that they are very lucky (one of them is a Mod).
Lillyflow Posted August 21, 2018 #21 Posted August 21, 2018 First - yes - The fact that you compiled any data and presented it was a cool effort! Thank you! Here are my thoughts ( what do you guys think @maverick528 @wry @Kate @Shaniqua On 8/20/2018 at 10:05 AM, maverick528 said: For me this is not a well-done statistical study. Because you cut in two the sample data at a random time (probably 00:00 hours of your local time), divided in saturday and sunday. For me the only valid way to present this is to look at ALL giveaways from the start to the end and present only one table saying how much users won XX repeated times. 💟 It would be EXCELLENT with this data- also a look at the number of people entering contests. I think it has to be looked at as a total sum too. All the unique individuals who have ever entered in relation to the people who have won and the people who have won Muliple times. Only then will we get an accurate depiction of how unbalanced it is. I truly think the settings of the bot have criteria we don't understand. I think someone should update the setting of the bot daily to ensure it is managed. Also, think it should be someone different each time (a team of 3 or 4 would be enough ). On 8/20/2018 at 10:10 AM, Kate said: Wait a second do you mean from the start when the discord giveaway started or like from the starting time ? In the way you said according to time zone its not that well but give him some credit to scroll through the damn thing and not see his name in the winnings . Also every Statistics to a site given by google could also be in their time if you know what i mean 8 💟You are too cute!
Kate Posted August 22, 2018 #22 Posted August 22, 2018 10 hours ago, Lillyflow said: First - yes - The fact that you compiled any data and presented it was a cool effort! Thank you! Here are my thoughts ( what do you guys think @maverick528 @wry @Kate @Shaniqua 💟 It would be EXCELLENT with this data- also a look at the number of people entering contests. I think it has to be looked at as a total sum too. All the unique individuals who have ever entered in relation to the people who have won and the people who have won Muliple times. Only then will we get an accurate depiction of how unbalanced it is. I truly think the settings of the bot have criteria we don't understand. I think someone should update the setting of the bot daily to ensure it is managed. Also, think it should be someone different each time (a team of 3 or 4 would be enough ). 💟You are too cute! Yup i agree with compiling the data for the people who have won 5 or 6 times so to check if its really not fair or not
denildan Posted August 22, 2018 #23 Posted August 22, 2018 i am the 14 time winner . whos the one behind me..?
mayzee Posted August 22, 2018 #24 Posted August 22, 2018 still no win for me? how unlucky iam, for christ sake
nuuuitsjdragon Posted August 23, 2018 #25 Posted August 23, 2018 On 8/21/2018 at 12:02 AM, Carollzinha said: I loved the new discord, the exclusives (Stake.com) idea and obviously the giveaways.. the only thing I didnt like at all is that we are forced to join some random discord groups we dont really want to.. and the worst part, you cant leave these groups or you will no longer be exclusive.. I really have no idea who setted that rule but I really wish I could understand whats the purpose on that.. I loved the exclusives idea, I really do, but I wont stay in random groups that are mostly like full of spams only because someone want me to lol Word. Truth like this needs to be upvoted. Having said that, I still let my greed ($1 extra & exclusive giveaway is too attractive) get the better of me, buried my morals and went exclusive anyway. Guess it’s about time I slink away in shame...
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