Stake House Behavior over time

[Snike]

(This following text was my reply to a complaining user and I want to make it an own topic to gain attention and maybe clear things up) 

Over the last few months I've noticed some things as well. Whenever you start playing with a certain amount and you start winning and winning, there's a certain moment when you reach like a limit of either playtime or profit. From that moment on, stake turns completely negative. No matter what game you play. No matter how big your multiplier is. Stake will make you lose your whole balance.

That has nothing to do with my mindset while playing or me not being able to stop. A casino with a fair seed should stay the same at ALL times. Stake doesn't. Stake changes its behavior after some time and I know I'm not the single player noticing that. 

No hate speech against stake, I absolutely love stake. Just pointing it out. 

Is there a way for admins or developers to clear this up somehow. It's not normal for a casino to change behaviors depending on playtime or depending on profit. This appears with and without changes of the seed (client and server). 

[Katarina]

Hello.

What do you mean to say by this?

[Mlc]

Wow I can honestly say I kinda feel the same , I myself have been on a winning streak , win after win , then all of a sudden no matter what game you play or how much you stake  you cannot get a win , I don’t know why , I too love stake and I hold my hand up and say I should cash out more often when on a win streak , but it’s a casino and I come to play so I play , 

i am in no way saying stake is doing it on purpose because I have seen lots of users cash out profits timeznd time again ! But I would be interested in knowing why it goes down hill more often than not ! 

[Snike]

5 minutes ago, Katarina said:

Hello.

What do you mean to say by this?

That stake definitely changes the odds of you winning more balance after a certain time. The seed does nothing because even if you change your seed, your losing streak will continue. 

[rebol]

i second that 

[Snike]

4 minutes ago, Mlc said:

Wow I can honestly say I kinda feel the same , I myself have been on a winning streak , win after win , then all of a sudden no matter what game you play or how much you stake  you cannot get a win , I don’t know why , I too love stake and I hold my hand up and say I should cash out more often when on a win streak , but it’s a casino and I come to play so I play , 

i am in no way saying stake is doing it on purpose because I have seen lots of users cash out profits timeznd time again ! But I would be interested in knowing why it goes down hill more often than not ! 

I'm more than sure the officials of stake would say it's "depending on when you stop" but a casino and its winning odds should stay the same and not change when you play. Changing seeds or not - doesn't matter. 

[athena2007]

I mean dont get me wrong i just think  you are being a little salty on losing . you lose you win i dont see any skullduggery going on its the ways of casinos have u ever seen a broke casino or a bookmaker but you see many broke gamblers.. 

[Snike]

3 minutes ago, athena2007 said:

I mean dont get me wrong i just think  you are being a little salty on losing . you lose you win i dont see any skullduggery going on its the ways of casinos have u ever seen a broke casino or a bookmaker but you see many broke gamblers.. 

I've been wanting to post about this for a while now, this has nothing to do with me being salty. As stated above I love stake to the utter most but I want an explanation for this phenomenon lol

[athena2007]

6 minutes ago, Snike said:

I've been wanting to post about this for a while now, this has nothing to do with me being salty. As stated above I love stake to the utter most but I want an explanation for this phenomenon lol

ok maybe i worded it wrong ..soggy  maybe becaus ei read the rant from the other player just b4 this one the one you replied to.

 

[lolipant]

the problem is, you can't proof that without a solid evidence (if there's a programmer here, write a simple script that would collected a certain amount of nounce from a certain seeds from verification page would help a lot, since then we can analyst the seeds in bulk, to see the site is really not cheating)

[Snike]

6 minutes ago, lolipant said:

the problem is, you can't proof that without a solid evidence (if there's a programmer here, write a simple script that would collected a certain amount of nounce from a certain seeds from verification page would help a lot, since then we can analyst the seeds in bulk, to see the site is really not cheating)

My capabilities are faaaar from enough to prove this. That's not even what I'm trying to do or to achieve. I just want to hear what stake themselves have to say about this. 

[maverick528]

Stake provides a way to verify all bets.

And it is based on tools and mathematic principles that were not developed by Stake, like for example the SHA256 standard.

You can search in wikipedia what SHA is, and what HMAC is, and see that lots of scientific papers were written about them, not by Stake. So currently for example it is not feasible to take the hashed server seed and generate the clear server seed, OR for Stake to generate a collision (generate two server seeds with the same hash).

This is not religion or black magic, its science and knowledge.

Provably fair guarantees that the casino CAN NOT change its behaviour depending on how much you bet for example. The outcome of the game is already decided even before you place your bet, and it can not change.

The more interesting thing is that for example in Diamond Poker you can not change sides, so you can get a red streak 30 rolls long and that is not very good for the player, but its also possible to get a 30 green streak, and nobody mentions that.

BUT in HiLo its one of the games where YOU can choose at any time if next card is higher or lower, you have complete freedom of choice, so its one of the games where your luck/skill/strat can shine. (Im mentioning HiLo cause you originally wrote this complain on a thread of an user complaining that HiLo is "rigged").

[lolipant]

15 minutes ago, maverick528 said:

Stake provides a way to verify all bets.

And it is based on tools and mathematic principles that were not developed by Stake, like for example the SHA256 standard.

You can search in wikipedia what SHA is, and what HMAC is, and see that lots of scientific papers were written about them, not by Stake. So currently for example it is not feasible to take the hashed server seed and generate the clear server seed, OR for Stake to generate a collision (generate two server seeds with the same hash).

This is not religion or black magic, its science and knowledge.

Provably fair guarantees that the casino CAN NOT change its behaviour depending on how much you bet for example. The outcome of the game is already decided even before you place your bet, and it can not change.

The more interesting thing is that for example in Diamond Poker you can not change sides, so you can get a red streak 30 rolls long and that is not very good for the player, but its also possible to get a 30 green streak, and nobody mentions that.

BUT in HiLo its one of the games where YOU can choose at any time if next card is higher or lower, you have complete freedom of choice, so its one of the games where your luck/skill/strat can shine. (Im mentioning HiLo cause you originally wrote this complain on a thread of an user complaining that HiLo is "rigged").

may i ask one question? may you explain how does this work?

chartbet for example, at first the house edge is 2%, then there's a promotion that reduced hose edge to 0.5%, then now the house edge is 1%

how do i proof that the house edge is really 1% in this case? provably fair only show me the results of each bet (which i understand it's from two seeds together and nounce, but stake still control the edge right?), but i don't really understand further

was the seeds from when the edge is 2% give the same results as when it is 0.5%? what about now?

[maverick528]

3 minutes ago, lolipant said:

may i ask one question? may you explain how does this work?

chartbet for example, at first the house edge is 2%, then there's a promotion that reduced hose edge to 0.5%, then now the house edge is 1%

how do i proof that the house edge is really 1% in this case? provably fair only show me the results of each bet (which i understand it's from two seeds together and nounce, but stake still control the edge right?), but i don't really understand further

was the seeds from when the edge is 2% give the same results as when it is 0.5%? what about now?

This is an interesting topic, cause house edge is implemented in a different way in all games, and that is because the way the games work.

For example in roulette if you play black or red, if there was not house edge you would have exactly 50% chance of winning and a payout of 2X. But in real life, when the ball hits the "0" number you lose. So if all the numbers have the same probability of showing, there is 1/37 chance that the "0" will appear, and that is how the house edge is implemented in roulette (1/37 is 2.7%).

On mines, the house edge is implemented in the multiplier of the payout. For example if you have 24 bombs and 1 diamond, there is 1 chance in 25 that you will click in the diamond instead of a bomb. If there was no house edge, the casino would pay you 25X each time you clicked on the diamond, BUT it pays you a smaller multiplier, cause the house edge is substracted from the payout multiplier.

On chartbet the house edge is implemented with numbers that when they roll you can not win, and they are chosen so that on average they appear 1% of the time. This numbers are right now 0.99X and 1.00X. When the house edge was 2%, you could also roll 0.98X in addition to this other numbers. When the house edge was made smaller for some time, it was because 0.99X was removed as a number that could be rolled.

 

 

[lolipant]

@maverick528 yes, i understand how the mathmatic edge (roulette, plinko, dice, baccarat, hilo, wheel, keno, diamond poker and mines) works

but i have no idea about chartbet (i thought it was a chance to crash over time), glad to see you explain, i understand it more  

edit: is this a bug then? this is from the seeds i play today but with a different nounce, it is still possible to get 0.98x (which shouldn't possible according to you when the edge is 1%) https://stake.com/fairness/verify-chartbet?clientSeed=Boobs&nonce=1440&serverSeed=9e47e7be6230342d11564fcf9f68246795d606b4242d96ed5ceed086edd74591

bet from that seeds: 

MINES: 1,004,100,407

placed by boobs on 09/10/2018

Wagered

0.00000001

Multiplier

0x

Profit

-0.00000001

 

[rack001]

This type of thoughts are common thing and in proper terms is called "Gambler's Fallacy" . 

Quote

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa).

Also the Provably Fair System in stake is verifiable by anyone and also prevents the casino to do stuff like that.  It also ensures the rolls cannot be changed , as the user has the server seed hashes (which is different for each string) and thus to achieve any type of stuff that you mentioned , the casino will have to change the server seed , which will never match the previous seed's hash !

 

[maverick528]

22 minutes ago, lolipant said:

@maverick528 yes, i understand how the mathmatic edge (roulette, plinko, dice, baccarat, hilo, wheel, keno, diamond poker and mines) works

but i have no idea about chartbet (i thought it was a chance to crash over time), glad to see you explain, i understand it more  

edit: is this a bug then? this is from the seeds i play today but with a different nounce, it is still possible to get 0.98x (which shouldn't possible according to you when the edge is 1%) https://stake.com/fairness/verify-chartbet?clientSeed=Boobs&nonce=1440&serverSeed=9e47e7be6230342d11564fcf9f68246795d606b4242d96ed5ceed086edd74591

bet from that seeds: 

MINES: 1,004,100,407

placed by boobs on 09/10/2018

Wagered

0.00000001

Multiplier

0x

Profit

-0.00000001

 

Do you have the bet id of that chartbet bet ? TY !!!

 

[lolipant]

4 minutes ago, maverick528 said:

Do you have the bet id of that chartbet bet ? TY !!!

 

no, i don't since i didn't really bet. it is just a verification results from the same server seeds and same client seeds as this bet MINES:1,004,100,407 (which you can see its verification info with /bet to confirm), but with a different nounce (nounce 1440 while the mines i post ealier has a nounce of 1181). (which should still be legit according to how the provably fair worked, right?)

[williamshennie9]

I don't know a lot about coding and programming, but yes, I have noticed this as well. It just seems impossible to start losing so many times in a row after you've won a bit, especially after changing the seeds. Of course, it could just be bad luck, or the house edge catching up to us, which I would easily believe. Stake is provably fair, so I guess it is just unlucky to start losing so many times after an initial win.

[wry]

5 hours ago, maverick528 said:

Provably fair guarantees that the casino CAN NOT change its behaviour depending on how much you bet for example. The outcome of the game is already decided even before you place your bet, and it can not change.

^^^^This.  In the unlikely event that Stake changed you could use math to show it.  A post on bitcointalk would be all you needed to take the site down.  It has happened to other sites, I've seen it.

While I'm sorry you lost, sincerely, Stake does not change, you do.  You go from the emotional rush of winning to the soul crushing experience of losing and it's 100% human nature to look for some external cause for that.  

[Dan]

15 hours ago, lolipant said:

the problem is, you can't proof that without a solid evidence (if there's a programmer here, write a simple script that would collected a certain amount of nounce from a certain seeds from verification page would help a lot, since then we can analyst the seeds in bulk, to see the site is really not cheating)

@Zoltan usually does such things, hes not an admin but a moderator on Primedice. He collect his own data on both sites with bots and multiple accounts from my understanding.

 

@lolipant 

For people who have been discussing the issue regarding the fairness tool for games in which we have changed the house edge for promotions.

We are aware that the tool wont work for those games until we do an update to the fairness calc to include an input for the house edge.

 

@Snike I totally understand what you are saying about losing after big wins. I constantly feel the same, not just on Stake but also when I'm sportsbetting or playing online poker. It happens so often in fact I feel I am somehow cursed due to something I did in the past. What I'm trying to get at is sometimes its a physiological barrier rather than the later.

I continue to gamble on Stake as you are probably aware I'm just a regular player also, and it's because I know I can trust the system because of its sheer volume. There's so many nerds in this community that are always finding reasons and ways to take on the casino any chance they get. If there's an exploit in our system its quickly abused, if there's some evidence of unfair practice, its caught and those who report it hold the casino hostage until large compensations are made.

When your so closely monitored in the public eye, you can usually trust those operators, especially over ones with small liquidity and players.