Taking a new look on Martingale

[williamshennie9]

Hi everyone

So for those of you that have read a lot of my comments and have asked me for advise, you will know that I swear against ever using martingale. It is a recipe for busting. But I have decided to reconsider recently, after the implementation of DOGE on Stake. Surely martingale can work if you gamble with DOGE, and have a basebet of 0.0000001 DOGE, hunting 2x, and doubling your bet with every loss?

To test the odds, with a base bet of 0.00000001 DOGE, you can have up to 37 losses in a row, if you have a balance of 688 DOGE. Now the change of losing a game like dice on 2x 37 times in a row is once every 137438953472 bets. This means your change of busting are 0.00000000072%. That's pretty good odds right?

Let me know what you guys think. Obviously if you do let this system run, you will have very small wins (as DOGE is not worth a lot), but it's nevertheless a good strategy in my opinion. I would love to hear your thoughts

[lolipant]

the problem with martingale is 1. in the end it will have the same chance for risk and reward than when you bet normally 2. you'd actually performing worse than betting normally since you can't optimize every bet to the best amount (if you didn't using script or re-adjust every hand) 3. the house payout cap or your balance cap 

let's say you have 1 btc and want a 2 btc as a goal. normally if you go all-in in dice for 2x, you'd have a 49.5% chance to get that (or lose all money)

then if you're using martingale, let's say you're up to 12 losing streak, the initial amount would be ~24,420 satoshi, and those would give you a 0.028% chance to lose pre bet per chain of bet if you're using the same payout setting (which if we divide those by 1, it would give you an average 3635 roll until you hit the busted streak)

let's say we run auto at 24420 sat for 1800 roll (which is half of expected roll to busted), it would give you a 24420*2*49.5%*1800 = 43,516,440 sat, which is about 57% less than expected value of 1 btc we'd get from the same risk of going all-in

why it is lower? well, because you need to re-adjust the bet amount every time you win for optimal amount if you want the same risk and reward when you going all-in, which defeated the purpose of setting an auto-bet in the first place

i do post the fine-tune bet script for martingale in Seuntjie dicebot's topic tho, check it if you're interested

but i'm not using it since bet it manually is more fun to me than just watch the bot roll and then busted (wrote the script is fun part tho)  

[Gamerboy]

Well I would like to run it with BtC

[williamshennie9]

Thank you for your input so far, some interesting ideas to think about  I guess the fact that you can only make 1 bet per second limits your profit to 0.31536 DOGE as @amarcrypto mentioned. It would be cool though if you could run through 1 million bets instantly using this method. 

[Etude]

I feel that no matter what in the long run martingale will always eventually turns to martinfail, too many times I just had my balance drained clean by it. 

[Flan]

I remember I got 5 streak losses when doing martingale for twice.

I don't know it was a bad scenario for me. I didn't expect that. 

So, i never believing any strategy. Because it always make me busted.

Luck based is really needed for that, there is no perfect strategy in betting. 

Even 0,0000001% chance will come to bust you.

[DviouS]

Martinfail   goodluck with that tho I wish you the best. I haven't ever seen anyone come out on top with it 

[HighDamage]

My advice when you use Martingale, don't look for 2x Payout. Look for the ones above like 3, 4, 5 or more. Because it can cover losses and get more profits  

[dmbadillo10]

On 10/21/2018 at 10:13 PM, williamshennie9 said:

Hi everyone

So for those of you that have read a lot of my comments and have asked me for advise, you will know that I swear against ever using martingale. It is a recipe for busting. But I have decided to reconsider recently, after the implementation of DOGE on Stake. Surely martingale can work if you gamble with DOGE, and have a basebet of 0.0000001 DOGE, hunting 2x, and doubling your bet with every loss?

To test the odds, with a base bet of 0.00000001 DOGE, you can have up to 37 losses in a row, if you have a balance of 688 DOGE. Now the change of losing a game like dice on 2x 37 times in a row is once every 137438953472 bets. This means your change of busting are 0.00000000072%. That's pretty good odds right?

Let me know what you guys think. Obviously if you do let this system run, you will have very small wins (as DOGE is not worth a lot), but it's nevertheless a good strategy in my opinion. I would love to hear your thoughts

Odds are soooo good if that's the case.

But it wouldn't be worth the time and effort using DOGE. 😉

[Jakubb]

Martingale never worked for me, it may work for a short amount of time, but if you keep seeking more, you will bust 100%. Also remember than house always wins at the end.

[Jed750]

On paper everything looks good until you actually put it into action, a rotary motor is the perfect example 

[Jakubb]

13 minutes ago, Jed750 said:

On paper everything looks good until you actually put it into action, a rotary motor is the perfect example 

That's really true. You see all the videos, all the odds etc and when you tend to try it, you fall into it and lose you money. At least you lose it in long term. 

[ceastem]

Amarcrypto is right on the money. Even if you wim through this and leave it overnight, i highly doubt youd profit big with this. And to top it off, you might lose it all too. Faucet money only if you're lucky.

Also, this would be good if can be left overnight and you still can catch rain, since you're still wagering. but i doubt you can catch rain by wagering these 1 dogeshi bets. So yeah even rain can't save this strat.

[jualid]

Yeah it seems you will never busted will doge but you know, the profit will be super small. I mean, even to get 1 doge profit it will takes a long time.

[OsmaNN]

it seems a little good but I don't do that because it seems to be a waste of time.

let's say you did and you made some money it may seem a little unlikely to say now what if you lose?

as I said I think this is just a waste of time.