Stake.us Originals

[made_in_vachina]

Stake.us Keno

Biased Odds (not as advertised)

Server Seed: cafbf80d3bd84f36d9e5178cb860a9543b6c48cf2ffb032c51ea2d2aaadd88a4

Server Seed (hashed): 1bc51f18537756617e780965c28e3b1463303e84ef8b7221ebdb594f82e6cbac

Client Seed: kUrpPXCPXn

# Of Tiles Played: 1

Difficulty: High

Advertised Win Chance: 25%

Series of plays versus actual wins:

965 plays / 212 wins

1184 / 264

1950 / 451

1997 / 458

3464 / 823

3694 / 880

3718 / 883

4105 / 974

4149 / 978

Assuming the expected win rate is 25%, we can calculate the expected wins and see how the actual wins compare:

• 965 × 0.25 = 241.25 → actual 212 → shortfall ~29.25

• 1184 × 0.25 = 296 → actual 264 → shortfall 32

• 1950 × 0.25 = 487.5 → actual 451 → shortfall 36.5

• 1997 × 0.25 = 499.25 → actual 458 → shortfall 41.25

• 3464 × 0.25 = 866 → actual 823 → shortfall 43

• 3694 × 0.25 = 923.5 → actual 880 → shortfall 43.5

• 3718 × 0.25 = 929.5 → actual 883 → shortfall 46.5

• 4105 × 0.25 = 1026.25 → actual 974 → shortfall 52.25

• 4149 × 0.25 = 1037.25 → actual 978 → shortfall 59.25

Observations:

• The shortfall keeps growing steadily—it’s not bouncing back toward the expected 25% win rate.

• This is beyond normal variance if the game were truly fair at 25%. Normally, you’d expect the differences to fluctuate around zero, not drift continuously downward.

•By the last data point, its over 59 wins behind what 25% would suggest. That’s huge.

“What’s the probability that, at every single checkpoint, the total wins would be this far below the expected 25%, or worse?”

Plays Expected Wins Actual Wins Gap (Expected − Actual) SD ≈ √(n·p·(1-p)) Z-score (Gap ÷ SD)

965 241.25 212 29.25 13.47 −2.17

1184 296 264 32 14.91 −2.15

1950 487.5 451 36.5 21.47 −1.70

1997 499.25 458 41.25 21.70 −1.90

3464 866 823 43 25.48 −1.69

3694 923.5 880 43.5 26.32 −1.65

3718 929.5 883 46.5 26.41 −1.76

4105 1026.25 974 52.25 27.73 −1.88

4149 1037.25 978 59.25 27.89 –2.12

Converting z-scores to probabilities

For each checkpoint, the probability of being at or below that number of wins:

z = -2.17 → ~1.5%

z = -2.15 → ~1.6%

z = -1.92 → ~2.7%

z = -2.13 → ~1.7%

z = -1.68 → ~4.6%

z = -1.65 → ~4.9%

z = -1.74 → ~4.1%

z = -1.90 → ~2.9%

z = -2.12 → ~1.7%

Each of these is already rare individually, but the probability that ALL of them happen at the same time is roughly the product of all these probabilities (assuming approximate independence):

Pall ~ 0.015 -0.016 .0.027:0.017.0.046 :0.049.0.041 :0.029 .0.017

Multiply them:

0.015 .0.016 -= 2.4 x 10-42.4 x 10-4.0.027 ~ 6.48 x 10-66.48 x 10-6.0.017 ~ 1.1 x 10-71.1 x 10-7-0.046 ~ 5.1 x 10-95.1 x 10-9 .0.049 ~ 2.5 x 10-102.5 x 10-10 .0.041 ~ 1.025 x 10-111.025 x 10-11 .0.029 ~ 2.97 x 10-132.97 x 10-13 .0.017 ~ 5 x 10-15

That’s roughly 1 in 200 trillion.

Why this matters

• The final point alone is “only” ~1 in 60.

• That’s not just a single bad day or streak — it’s the entire sequence staying below expectation at every checkpoint? Virtually impossible.

Interpretation

In plain English: for a fair 25% RNG, this sequence of continuous underperformance is virtually impossible.

The persistent downward trend you're seeing is extremely unlikely to happen by chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vinu]

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