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Statistics of 10k rolls


irawk0

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Posted

I think we all avoid Diamond Poker, so I decided to run a simple test, faucet start (2.5m doge satoshi), 50k each bet, for 10,000 bets. All were on one single server/client seed. Here is the results (ignore the 5840 at the end that was me betting BTC on a different game and forgetting about this thing sadface): image.png.d843cc98afefc25f481b65f8155e6c90.png  

So I guess the answer is yes, you can make money but the general trend is downwards. Just an interesting statistic if anyone care to read :) took me a day to do this so thought why not post it.

Posted

This is amazing! Thanks for taking the time to do this. From wagering 5.00589819 DOGE, you would expect to lose 1%, which is 0.0500589819 DOGE. I guess you lost 0.053 DOGE, which is just more than 1%, but too much more. I guess this confirms the house edge of 1% :)

Posted

Hi! me every time I play diamond poker at the beginning it's fine but as soon as I win too much I start to have more equal ranks and even if I change the seed I ended up crushing my bankroll! so now that I play this game I use the BCH account (the one where I have the least on it) and I play assuming that I'm going to crash at some point! if I win so much I cash and convert into another crypto!
Anyway, I like the test you did, it shows a lot! Interesting!👍
good luck!🍀
bye!
 

Posted

In every game you can get profits! But at first you need to know how to play that game, second you need to be lucky and third maybe take a look at seed servers.

Diamond poker as I’ve seen most of the time there you should have luck and you get profit, everything it’s random there so fate is unknown.

Posted

Nice little experiment there for 10000 rolls and it seems clearly that the house edge eventually eats out a big chunk of the balance for sure. :o

  • Moderator
Posted

Some people only see the half-empty glass.

In the graph you post there is at the start an area that is in green, above the zero-profit line.

So if you stop at the right time, at the peak in green, you walk out with profit, using no strat at all.

The graph also shows more wins than loses (3661 VS 3504).

And saying that the trend is always downward is also misleading, because maybe if you continued for 5000 rolls more you would have catched a green streak long enough to put you into profit again. Nobody knows. Its just randomness and variance in the rolls.

Anyway thanks for doing this.

Maybe I will try to make one too if I have some time, to see if the results are similar or not.

 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

woah that is the longest auto roll session on DP i have every seen...
one thing that sucks is that the stats thing does not show tie bets... i wonder how many of those were in it

  • Moderator
Posted
1 hour ago, Shaniqua said:

woah that is the longest auto roll session on DP i have every seen...
one thing that sucks is that the stats thing does not show tie bets... i wonder how many of those were in it

If you are really really interested in how much tie bets were there, just do 3661 plus 3504, then substract from 10000 the result of that.

You are welcome. 

Posted
On 12/11/2018 at 1:50 AM, maverick528 said:

If you are really really interested in how much tie bets were there, just do 3661 plus 3504, then substract from 10000 the result of that.

You are welcome. 

I still think that the stats option should have that tie number included. A tie is not considered a loss and it should not add the loss to the the win amount number

its just not logical

  • Moderator
Posted
7 hours ago, Shaniqua said:

I still think that the stats option should have that tie number included. A tie is not considered a loss and it should not add the loss to the the win amount number

its just not logical

I can see you are trying to increase post count again. Or you suck at maths. Or both.

A tie is not considered a loss in livestats and its not counted. It is neither counted as a win. It is not logical. Also does not change the Profit amount.

The only change in Livestats when you hit a tie is that the "Total wagered" amount is increased.

Again, the way to know the number of ties is this = 

#Ties = TotalRolls minus TotalWins minus TotalLosses

In the "Statistics" page of your Stake account you do have the information about the total number of "ties" for DiamondPoker, this is good for those that are interested in the statistical significance of ties in this game.

Also, if you want your suggestion to add "ties" to Livestats to become a reality, there is this website that Stake created for this purpose, so that the Devs know what you want =

https://stake.canny.io/feature-requests

 

 

 

Posted
16 hours ago, maverick528 said:

I can see you are trying to increase post count again. Or you suck at maths. Or both.

A tie is not considered a loss in livestats and its not counted. It is neither counted as a win. It is not logical. Also does not change the Profit amount.

The only change in Livestats when you hit a tie is that the "Total wagered" amount is increased.

Again, the way to know the number of ties is this = 

#Ties = TotalRolls minus TotalWins minus TotalLosses

In the "Statistics" page of your Stake account you do have the information about the total number of "ties" for DiamondPoker, this is good for those that are interested in the statistical significance of ties in this game.

Also, if you want your suggestion to add "ties" to Livestats to become a reality, there is this website that Stake created for this purpose, so that the Devs know what you want =

https://stake.canny.io/feature-requests

 

 

 

and you want to say thiis is not targeting behaviour being displayed.? making accusations  of post count abuse and blatantly saying i suck at my math?... thats rude ,,, your type always has to get the last word or last one to laugh, or slap before it ends, so idk why i even biother trying to explain myself to you or others, i guess its for the greater good not just a selfish act..
assuming the worst before even before having chance for you to clarify things or understand . seems pretty much targeting to me... singling out. what kind of thing is that to say btw saying i such at math. idk, the whole being rude is not needed here. especially as in the end you agree with me for wanting the suggestion to become reality.. 
i have had 1000+ posts and only like 3 of them had problems or maybe 5ish max, and since you got on my hunting me  my content  ,  probably cause in main chat i diid not agree with your your suggestion of withdrawing all at once instead of 3k each, (as it served your needs not mine) it seems to me you have made it a point to try and punish me for that or teach a lesson or whatnot maybe its just annoying you the many tips sent or  maybe its a power thing idk, but all of a sudden im getting posts deleted from pretty much just  from you,  it just feels awful targeting to me. i understand the spam in general has increased from newbies and whatnot, but all my content thought of before posting and time out of my life put into it. .. anyways not to get off topic.. 

______________________________________________________________________________

in regards to your comment. about suggestions, i just use the suggestions forum section in general instead of that other weird site where users end up plagiarizing ideas of stuff found here in forum, i had a horrible experience with it in the start of the canny thing...  
but why do i have to sit and do the maths when it can display the more accurate information to me? just makes things complicated for those not knowing the maths as well as you or i

 

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