Plinko Probability Tester

[Xander1022]

Plinko Probability Test

This shows/simulates the chances of winning on plinko with relative statistics

Hope this helps you win or atleast make good strategies at  plinko😁

https://phet.colorado.edu/sims/html/plinko-probability/1.0.3/plinko-probability_en-iframe.html

[blueprints]

Thanks for this! Its actually really helped me have a much better understanding of plinko and now i have a much better idea of how to play it. Honestly, it painted a good picture of how it works. 

[Xander1022]

4 minutes ago, blueprints said:

Thanks for this! Its actually really helped me have a much better understanding of plinko and now i have a much better idea of how to play it. Honestly, it painted a good picture of how it works. 

Im very glad to help:)

[KiXxnTRiXx]

 Plinko doesnt make sense most of the time... Ive been busting everything in the past couple of weeks playing plinko... all day today, all im getting are streams of red.. hit one decent multiplier, but gies back to streams of reds that busts you... everytime you try to double your bet, it goes onto an infinite streams of reds until you bust.

 its retarded and makes absolute no sense on how its so consistent in just giving reds over and over, yet no conssistency is hitting greens.... likeholy fuk.. 

[blueprints]

I think plinko is the worst game to try and win with. I mean most are likely to drop right in the middle. ugh.I wish there was a disable button

[irawk0]

This is definitely very cool to see, a physical simulation. It doesn't surprise me how hard it is to hit 1000x. However what does surprise me is how often it is to hit 29x on High-8 pins and I'm like... 800 rolls overdue for it.

[williamshennie9]

This is awesome! I will definitely use it when I play plinko again! Great creation, and will be useful for people who like to run simulations

[Kate]

Thanks for this it will help to know how far is it to hit 1000x or any multiplier.  Also ate you the owner of the website ? 

[Mikehoncho]

On 1/16/2019 at 10:35 AM, Xander1022 said:

Plinko Probability Test

This shows/simulates the chances of winning on plinko with relative statistics

Hope this helps you win or atleast make good strategies at  plinko😁

https://phet.colorado.edu/sims/html/plinko-probability/1.0.3/plinko-probability_en-iframe.html

Thanks for the share. This is a cool tool. 

Any chance you could explain some of the options in lab mode? One really. What does the binary options control do?

Anyone?

[KiXxnTRiXx]

Has anyone made a successful strat using this? I looked at it, im still confused a bit on how to create strat with the data gathered from the simulation. It looks interesting though abd somewhat accurate.. at 16 pibs after over a thousand drops, no hit on 130x or 1000x.. lol .. any way on actually putting a balance and base bet? ill play around with it some more, perhaps i missed it. but thanks for the app, looks cool.

[Pirnitho]

@Xander1022, indeed a cool tool, thanks for sharing. 👍

On 1/20/2019 at 2:14 PM, Mikehoncho said:

Thanks for the share. This is a cool tool. 

Any chance you could explain some of the options in lab mode? One really. What does the binary options control do?

Anyone?

Binary options control, as far as I understand it, is if you have a "non-standard" plinko game, where the odds of the ball going left or right at each pin is not equal. On stake, these odds are equal, so you should leave this at 0.50. But if some theoretical plinko game had a slightly higher odds of going right, let's say 5% 10% higher than going left, you would put this to 0.55. So this ultimately means "odds of going right at each pin".

On 1/31/2019 at 12:05 PM, KiXxnTRiXx said:

Has anyone made a successful strat using this? I looked at it, im still confused a bit on how to create strat with the data gathered from the simulation. It looks interesting though abd somewhat accurate.. at 16 pibs after over a thousand drops, no hit on 130x or 1000x.. lol .. any way on actually putting a balance and base bet? ill play around with it some more, perhaps i missed it. but thanks for the app, looks cool.

I tried to see how high I could go without hitting the 1000x, and eventually I ran into some limit 😂:

But as you can see, I went over 50K rolls without hitting the 1000x once.

In theory, and I am no expert on this, I think the standard deviation for the number of drops to hit 1000x is equal to the average number of drops, so about 32,768 drops. You can also see this very useful site which shows you the frequency of hitting any particular space, based on pascal's triangle: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html

So, back to the standard deviation, I think the "very unlucky" figure is 3 standard deviations. So if you're "very unlucky", you would need 32,768 + 3 * 32,768 = 131,072 drops to hit the 1000x only once!

Of course, if you're super lucky, you could hit it in the first couple thousand drops.. So maybe this gives you some small idea of how to structure your betting strategy if you're hunting the 1000x.

I wish I understood this a bit more, but here's another interesting idea. From the simulation, we can see that the "standard deviation" or σ is 2.000 by the ideal mathematical calculation (and after 50K drops, we're pretty close to this with 2.002). To hit the 1000x means to hit a "0" or a "16" from this perspective, so in other words, 4 standard deviations away from the perfect mean of 8.000: 8.000 + 4*2.000 = 16.000; and 8.000 - 4*2.000 = 0.000. So exactly 4 standard deviations.

If 3 standard deviations is "super rare", then how rare is 4 standard deviations? Just another way to look at the puzzle.. 😉

[FotisNt]

Well, that's actually a good simulator, guess it's gonna help me impoving my strategies or getting less loses. Thanks for sharing!

[Shaniqua]

this is an interesting tool for sure,

i like how it almost alwasy statisitically and visually makes a bell curve  for us to see   in the graph like thing it generates..

and yes some stuff about the standard deviation and such which goes right past my head. im too  old for this type of maths nowasdays! 

[777seven]

My opinion what plinko, thise only Luck and strategy is not,we can only double bet, for safe profit, but simulator is good) 

[Zaynab Shah]

Does this actually work? Has anyone used this yet that can comment on its accuracy? It would be nice if it works, but i am not willing to be the guinea pig! Hahaha xD. Doesnt have to be 100% accurate, but 90% would be nice!

[Kate]

On 2/24/2019 at 12:20 AM, Zaynab Shah said:

Does this actually work? Has anyone used this yet that can comment on its accuracy? It would be nice if it works, but i am not willing to be the guinea pig! Hahaha xD. Doesnt have to be 100% accurate, but 90% would be nice!

Well you could try the site and then maybe see. For me it actually worked and it told me I have to do 200 rolls for 130x lol so I gave up even doing it on Stake.

[tae40127]

it very dangerous for playing and very easy for losing it need only lucky like a big jackpot for this game

[BLXN]

ha! this is incredible. I'm going to let this fucker run for a while. thanks for the link. it seems like everyone should watch this.

[Jeazelle]

If you take the risk on plinko you will win, That is my understanding on plinko.

[mhasandx]

i also do not understand plinko very much. But with the help of this i understand this game is based on Binary Distribution

[Enzo]

This is awesome! I never knew something like this for Plinko existed. I had only known about it for mines! I will definitely try this out the next time I play plinko.

Seems like it makes it easier to get an idea of whether or not you have a chance of hitting a certain multiplier.

[nuuuitsjdragon]

On 2/3/2019 at 7:25 AM, Pirnitho said:

@Xander1022, indeed a cool tool, thanks for sharing. 👍

Binary options control, as far as I understand it, is if you have a "non-standard" plinko game, where the odds of the ball going left or right at each pin is not equal. On stake, these odds are equal, so you should leave this at 0.50. But if some theoretical plinko game had a slightly higher odds of going right, let's say 5% 10% higher than going left, you would put this to 0.55. So this ultimately means "odds of going right at each pin".

I tried to see how high I could go without hitting the 1000x, and eventually I ran into some limit 😂:

But as you can see, I went over 50K rolls without hitting the 1000x once.

In theory, and I am no expert on this, I think the standard deviation for the number of drops to hit 1000x is equal to the average number of drops, so about 32,768 drops. You can also see this very useful site which shows you the frequency of hitting any particular space, based on pascal's triangle: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html

So, back to the standard deviation, I think the "very unlucky" figure is 3 standard deviations. So if you're "very unlucky", you would need 32,768 + 3 * 32,768 = 131,072 drops to hit the 1000x only once!

Of course, if you're super lucky, you could hit it in the first couple thousand drops.. So maybe this gives you some small idea of how to structure your betting strategy if you're hunting the 1000x.

I wish I understood this a bit more, but here's another interesting idea. From the simulation, we can see that the "standard deviation" or σ is 2.000 by the ideal mathematical calculation (and after 50K drops, we're pretty close to this with 2.002). To hit the 1000x means to hit a "0" or a "16" from this perspective, so in other words, 4 standard deviations away from the perfect mean of 8.000: 8.000 + 4*2.000 = 16.000; and 8.000 - 4*2.000 = 0.000. So exactly 4 standard deviations.

If 3 standard deviations is "super rare", then how rare is 4 standard deviations? Just another way to look at the puzzle.. 😉

I assume the standard deviation of 3 applies  to only Plinko. 

In this manner, we will be able to at least have a min-max rolls required for our target, for eg. 1kx, then size our bets accordingly to at least be able to stomach the unluckiest situation? 

Now that’s a whole new way of playing that I have never experienced...

[Rigster]

But you can just hover over the multiplier on plinko and see the odds your dealing with?

[weswayahe]

On 2/3/2019 at 6:25 AM, Pirnitho said:

@Xander1022, indeed a cool tool, thanks for sharing. 👍

Binary options control, as far as I understand it, is if you have a "non-standard" plinko game, where the odds of the ball going left or right at each pin is not equal. On stake, these odds are equal, so you should leave this at 0.50. But if some theoretical plinko game had a slightly higher odds of going right, let's say 5% 10% higher than going left, you would put this to 0.55. So this ultimately means "odds of going right at each pin".

I tried to see how high I could go without hitting the 1000x, and eventually I ran into some limit 😂:

But as you can see, I went over 50K rolls without hitting the 1000x once.

In theory, and I am no expert on this, I think the standard deviation for the number of drops to hit 1000x is equal to the average number of drops, so about 32,768 drops. You can also see this very useful site which shows you the frequency of hitting any particular space, based on pascal's triangle: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html

So, back to the standard deviation, I think the "very unlucky" figure is 3 standard deviations. So if you're "very unlucky", you would need 32,768 + 3 * 32,768 = 131,072 drops to hit the 1000x only once!

Of course, if you're super lucky, you could hit it in the first couple thousand drops.. So maybe this gives you some small idea of how to structure your betting strategy if you're hunting the 1000x.

I wish I understood this a bit more, but here's another interesting idea. From the simulation, we can see that the "standard deviation" or σ is 2.000 by the ideal mathematical calculation (and after 50K drops, we're pretty close to this with 2.002). To hit the 1000x means to hit a "0" or a "16" from this perspective, so in other words, 4 standard deviations away from the perfect mean of 8.000: 8.000 + 4*2.000 = 16.000; and 8.000 - 4*2.000 = 0.000. So exactly 4 standard deviations.

If 3 standard deviations is "super rare", then how rare is 4 standard deviations? Just another way to look at the puzzle.. 😉

yes i agree with you. need extra luck when playing plinko. at the beginning of the join I have gotten several corners. and after that maybe more than hundreds of thousands of roll I never get it again

[Ali saher]

Thanks for share this strategy I think this will help me to understand to plinko game ,

Next time I try this strategy and I hope this strategy give me some good results and maybe I hit some big multiplayer