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Look at the matchups left on the board. We're in the deep end of the tournament, and some of these so-called tournament "favorites" look completely unconvincing. They are scraping through on individual moments of luck or relying entirely on VAR to bail them out, while playing the most boring, defensive, risk-averse football imaginable.

The lines on Stake are treating these massive footballing nations like they're untouchable, but the data tells a completely different story. They are ripe for an upset, and backing the underdogs to cover the spread or force extra time is where the real value is right now.

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