wry Posted June 26, 2019 #1 Posted June 26, 2019 Background. Even though I don't have a lot of BTC, I love it when the price runs up because I believe in the project and enjoy seeing the haters, especially the big institutions on Wall Street, be wrong. This run up has been been very exciting, running from the low 3000s all the way to 12800+ earlier today, a boost of over 1K USD in only one day. Such head spinning price jumps have me feeling like it's December 2017, and thinking about late 2017 has me thinking about how this rally may end. Keep in mind that all markets have ebb and flow, trees do not grow to the sky, and so this rally will end at some point. So the topic for this thread is how, the fun thing is we'll be able to come back and see if we were right! Supply. One of the nice things about Bitcoin is that supply is fixed and pretty easy to determine, e.g. about 12.5 new coins every 10 minutes. So all we have to figure out is the demand side. Rationale for Rally. The current rationale for this run up, one which I subscribe to, is that more institutions are moving into crypto which is further supported by Facebook's Libra announcement that has legitimized crypto in general. Seriously, while comment threads on stories in 2017 were full of people screaming ponzi and tulips, and while that still happens from time to time, they really can't say that about Libra, their comments are more about privacy. What will end the Rally? So my thesis for the end of the rally is the logical extension of this, while Libra has gotten more people interested it has also drawn the attraction of regulators. These people are responsible to politicians who are starting to see the danger of "private money" and so will seek to regulate it to protect all of use from terrorists and other bad guys. The seeds of this have been sown with the new FATF travel rule to increase regulation of exchanges and expected new tax guidance. While neither of these will end Bitcoin, after all there are always dark markets and unregulated corners of the world, it will more than kill the rally. That's my theory, if you have a thoughtful one I'd love to hear it!
williamshennie9 Posted June 27, 2019 #2 Posted June 27, 2019 My local news station suggested that the price behaviour of bitcoin is very similar to the 2017 scenario, where prices rapidly increased due to a sudden influx of demand. The same could be true for this surge in price.
3kpk3 Posted June 27, 2019 #3 Posted June 27, 2019 Kill the rally? I doubt it. BTC is growing organically from quite sometime now which is a lot different when compared to its inorganic rise back in 2017 which is why it will continue growing steadily over time. The 2020 halving will further help BTC grow drastically over time and $30K might become the new standard value of BTC.
DreamStage Posted June 28, 2019 #4 Posted June 28, 2019 Well to me ended when i sold almost my stashed Bitcoins About the market itself i do believe it was in some way due to so many people seeing others start selling which made the chain of other people feel the same way and to get out with profits they had to sell out as well. That's basically from my perspective that caused the huge price drop for the 1 hour where the price sky dropped from almost $14.000 to $12.000.
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