The Martingale System [FULL EXPLANATION]

[Darkai]

The Martingale Method
A beginners guide to martingaling - Darkai

This is simply meant to be a basic thread to introduce people to the concept of the martingale strategy
Please take everything I say with a grain of salt, as most of the things that I will bring up in this thread are factual, I will have small interjections of my own personal opinion on some things, I will try my best to logically organise all my ideas and be as transparent and non-bias as I can in this thread.

What is "Martingale"?
Martingale is a mathematical principle of betting. It involves a system where you attempt to multiply your bet by a certain amount,  if you lose the bet, you bet again to the same multiplier, except you increase your bet by a certain percentage to make a percentage of your losses from the previous bet back. This percentage will keep exponentially increasing until you win a game, once you win a game after a loss, your base bet will return to what it was originally.

Examples
Establishing Variables
Let our base bet = W
Let our balance / bankroll = The variable X
Let the multiplier we want to hit = The variable Y
Let  the % we increase our bet by on loss = The variable Z
In this example, lets assign values to our variables.
Please note that bold letter = var
Number right before var with no space = number x var
Let w = w
Let x = 1000w
Let y = 2.00x
Let z = +100% (2x)

Round | Bet x Multiplier | Outcome | Profit  | Total profit
No. 1    | 1w x 2                   | WIN           | +1w      | +1w   
No. 2    | 1w x 2                   | WIN           | +1w      | +2w
No. 3    | 1w x 2                   | LOSE         | - 1w      | +1w
No. 4    | 2w x 2                   | LOSE         | - 2w      | -1w
No. 5    | 4w x 2                   | LOSE         | - 4w      | -5w
No. 6    | 8w x 2                   | LOSE         | - 8w      | -13w
No. 7    | 16w x 2                 | LOSE         | - 16w    | -29w
No. 8    | 32w x 2                 | WIN           | +32w    | +3w   

Notice how even after the losses from Game 3-7, when game 8 was won, the losses were completely reset!
Notice how you could cut out game 3-7 and the pattern of total profit (+1 per game) would stick.
For further reference later, lets call Game#8 the recovery round

That is the idea of martingale, you are making back enough of your losses, as to where you still get enough profit as you would have if you won the first bet on your loss streak.
This obviously seems like an excellent strategy in practice, but martingale comes with its own flaws and drawbacks, and there are many things you could modify in your martingale to make it more or less risky.

Modifications
Going back to what was stated far earlier, with your Y & Z values being ideal for eachother, you can modify this principle to make your martingale more or less risky.
Take the values we have currently assigned to our example. 
If we chance Y to 3.00x from 2.00x, we are making it more risky, but with a higher profit margin. The suggested z value for a 3.00x y value is 50% (1.50x), so if we are to make the z value higher than the suggested value for that y value, then we are making it more risky for ourselves but increasing the profit margin. The reason it inherently becomes more risky is because the higher the multiplier you are chasing, the lower the probability of it is hitting. If you play a total of 1,000,000 games, you can expect the maximum streak without hitting your target multiplier to be up to 11x your y value. So if your y is 2.00x,

There is a free online calculator available that allows you to check how big of a loss streak you can take with your martingale settings.
The calculator can be accessed at: https://dicesites.com/tools 

THE RISKS
Martingale is an inherently risky strategy, just due to the fact that the primary principle that it relies on is exponential increase.
If your base bet was 1 bit (100 satoshi), and your payout/increase was a corresponding 2.00x/100%, by the 20th loss in a row, you would be betting 1,048,576 bits, meaning you would have gone from a $0.013 bet to a $13,500 bet in under 20 games. This is the same principle regardless of the multiplier you chase, as if you change your multiplier to be higher, the streaks without that multiplier will be higher as well, meaning you can't really change your payout to reduce the risk of losing your bankroll, the most you can do is reduce the % you increase your bet by, but that is also counterintuitive as that means you won't able to recover your losses as fast, and you still have a chance of busting on a bad red streak.

I will add more information to this guide later on, but for now this is everything that a beginner would need to know about the martingale betting strategy!
Please do provide some feedback as to what comprehensive guide I should make next.

Happy staking everyone!

[williamshennie9]

THis is a really impressive article which you have written. It makes a lot of sense, and even someone like me who has known about martingale for years found value in this post. I agree that it is super risky over the long term. It can work for short term gains though.

[Darkai]

18 minutes ago, williamshennie9 said:

THis is a really impressive article which you have written. It makes a lot of sense, and even someone like me who has known about martingale for years found value in this post. I agree that it is super risky over the long term. It can work for short term gains though.

Well I'm glad I could help haha

Took a while to write out in full because I didn't know how to put my thoughts in to words.

[nattekut]

very nice explanation but my opinion about any strategy remains the same. I just do not like any strategy for casino games. If you get lucky you will have a nice winning streak, but in the long run every strategy for a game of luck with house edge involved will end up In a loss. And if you are in a down streak and have for example7-8 reds in a row I would not risk more just to get my money back with a tiny profit

[Darkai]

33 minutes ago, nattekut said:

very nice explanation but my opinion about any strategy remains the same. I just do not like any strategy for casino games. If you get lucky you will have a nice winning streak, but in the long run every strategy for a game of luck with house edge involved will end up In a loss. And if you are in a down streak and have for example7-8 reds in a row I would not risk more just to get my money back with a tiny profit

I agree wholeheartedly.

Strategy is futile, this is just a guide for people who would like to have the false allure of safety within mathematics on a game of true RNG

[Enzo]

Great post pal, really explains the system for newer gamblers that haven't heard/used it before. I like to refer to martingale as "Martinfail", due to the fact that more often then not, players will use it with not enough of a bankroll to insure them pulling through on long loss streaks. But to each there own, I know plenty who have had GREAT success with this system of betting. Not for me personally though.

[Darkai]

1 hour ago, Enzo said:

Great post pal, really explains the system for newer gamblers that haven't heard/used it before. I like to refer to martingale as "Martinfail", due to the fact that more often then not, players will use it with not enough of a bankroll to insure them pulling through on long loss streaks. But to each there own, I know plenty who have had GREAT success with this system of betting. Not for me personally though.

Honestly can say the same here. I ripped 0.1 Bitcoin to a corresponding 3x martingale with a 1 bit base bet. I think people lose so much with this method because they forget that this isn't passive income, this is GAMBLING and it is purely determined by RNG and nothing more. That's why on all gamemodes I only play purely manual. I am not a fan of autobetting or scripting in the slightest, and the only time that I EVER use them is when I'm chasing a high ass multiplier when I'm bored or just hunting the telegram challenges haha. But I can see why someone would believe the whole "passive income" shtick, which is why I tried to outline the problems with it in the risks category.

[BLXN]

all bets/multipliers are pretty much equal with a proper attention to scale/balance:bet - a 2x bet with a 2-300% martingale raise is essentially equal to a 3-4x payout. keeping your bets at a minimum before applying a doubling/tripling raise is advised.

[hydray]

Thanks for the tips ! ^^

[Seoulmate]

Would any of you have a formula that I can use in a spreadsheet to calculate the appropriate increase on loss for any particular target.

[Xarv]

On 8/30/2019 at 4:02 PM, Seoulmate said:

Would any of you have a formula that I can use in a spreadsheet to calculate the appropriate increase on loss for any particular target.

This would be pretty handy...

Let me know if you find one!

[Seoulmate]

58 minutes ago, Xarv said:

This would be pretty handy...

Let me know if you find one!

I found one

[Saaho2019]

25 minutes ago, Seoulmate said:

I found one

Can you share with us  

[Seoulmate]

of course

[SLFJ]

I don't think there's specific formulas.

[kirillhack]

And that will further suppose if I lose 10 rates and so on, think I simply'll die from grievances
 

[Seoulmate]

On 9/28/2019 at 9:59 AM, Saaho2019 said:

Can you share with us  

Apologise for delay, you can use the following formula to find out the On Loss multiplier for any payout target:

On LOSS Multiplier = (1/(PAYOUT-1))+1
 

Example
Lets say my Payout Target is 10x

So to determine what to multiply on loss I'd use the following formula:
(1/(10-1))+1 

So on loss I'd multiply my previous bet by  1.1111

Stake uses percentage values to specify on loss amount, so in this case it would be 11.11%

Hope that's not too confusing. Remeber Martengale is covering all previous bets and if it hits will give you 1 extra bet unit.

One other point

I have in the past over martengaled when chasing a target of 300x 

I did this continuously for a period of 24 hrs and in that time I took 3 million sats to 65 million sats.
My Starting Bet size was 1000 sats
Those who say martengale doesn't work are incorrect.

Every strategy works at the right time, and may fail if used at the wrong time.

[Ali saher]

I really don't know what is mtingale and after read this article I understand some and know about martingale how work this is very helpful for me thanks for sharing this information