Is betting on Tennis too volatile?

[Thepug]

Through this post, I was just wondering if you guys think that betting on Tennis matches was too volatile. Through this, I mean how bets can have high uncertainty and even the lowest risk bets can lose you your money.

For example, the other day I made a bet on someone to win a game, with 6.00 odds and I won the bet. This was completely to my surprise and I nearly made a bet on the more likely player to win.

So, is there a way that you can predict the winner of a tennis match, or is it simply like tossing a coin? I don’t know who many of the players are, so most of the time I just place a bet on a random player.

Do you guys think that there can be some skill to tennis sports betting? Or, is it just a fluke that you can win a bet?  

[Hannibal]

Tennis can definitely be dodgy, I've only recently started putting the occasional casual bet on tennis and I have seen players throw 6 point leads in tiebreaks, lose sets from 3/4/5 games up, throw games on double faults, and lose matches despite winning a set 6-0.

 

That said, I wouldn't say it's much more volatile than other sports if at all. I see upsets in soccer and basketball all the time, and usually the odds for tennis players are much more evenly matched than between team games to begin with. So while a lot of tennis games may look like a 'coinflip' on the face of it, I think it's a bit unfair to call it volatile. After all, it's (usually) one person against one person and unfortunately some people are just better physically than others, but more importantly, people have different variations in playstyle and gameplay and mentality which can give them the upper hand against stronger opponents and can be studied. The differences between players may be obscure or slight, but be much more significant than in team games which require coordination between multiple people complimenting eachother, or in other 1v1 sports like boxing wherein a moment of luck can instantly end the game in favour of an inferior player. So I would in fact imagine tennis is one of the best sports to research and put time into betting-wise.

 

A match of tennis involves many games which means the score should eventually reach a sort of equilibrium which properly represents the difference in skill of the two players, although it is always possible one player may have an off-day, or an inferior player can sustain a gained advantage long enough to win the game before the other player can recover, so as in other sports, nothing is guaranteed no matter how well you study it.      

 

As I said, I've only recently started looking at tennis and I'm a very casual bettor, so I might be completely wrong about all this, but it's my first thoughts on the matter.

[allisonn]

Most casino games are just as heavy on the variance, over the long run it evens out if you're consistent. I've lost maybe 7 in a row or so now, so I'm very confident in my abilities to pick the losing player. 

In WTA especially anything can happen on a good day, and in challenge I have promised myself to never pick the favorite. Still, I don't think you can throw all the stats out the window, for people with good models it should be really good as it's a 1v1 game, either you win or lose with fewer sources of outside variance such as player changes or synergy in a team sport.

[Seoulmate]

You can bet on the winner of the next point instead of the whole match. I have no Idea who is the best player but if a player is serving well I think its worth betting on the points.

[evet]

Yeah tennis betting can be. If it doesnt work in betting towards the winner in overall then do single betting instead of multi. Sometimes it works doing in single betting and following the tourna all through out 

[Ali saher]

I think mostly matches results come same . because strong player mostly win match .just few times we surprise and just few times this will happen.i also some time take risk with a not favourite player.

[sahil777]

well you can call it a fluke, when you dont know much about any sports and just bet randomly, then your winning is just a fluke, i did that once in a baseball match, though i dont know anything about baseball, and i won that bet at other site, but after that i never won again lol, so now i like to stay with those games whom i know very well.

[vEwYvEwYqUiEt.]

ATP is better than WTA at holding serve so usually will have 6-4 or 7-6 or 7-5 games most the time.

John Isner is the ultimate servebot and usually goes to tiebreak

[talawas]

I even bet on table tennis, thats even more volatile. But it can still be profitable lol