Math behind Mines: from -18k->+36k->-1k in 2 weeks (+50k in 5 days)

[liquidfirekan]

https://ibb.co/XSTJtf7 (Same as attached pic) - wins and losses every day

 

Basically my strategy is to play with 3 mines and click 3-4 diamonds at a time. 

 

Clicking 3 diamonds 3 times in a row with maxing your bet each time is 1.47^3 return. Or roughly 3.17x

 

The chance of you being able to cash out 3 diamonds in a game is:

22/25 * 21/24 * 20/23 or ~66.95%

So if we take that number and cube it (for 3 games) 

 

0.6695x0.6695x0.6695 = 0.30009 

 

Or roughly 30% 

 

Keep in mind that stake has a 1% edge. So getting 3.17x on a 30% chance is not too shabby. 

Basically what I'll do is go all in 3 with my bank roll 3 times and try to get the triple up. 

After that you can play a bit more conservatively placing 3-10% of your bank roll a bet. 

What I like to do is lose once I lose 2 bets I'll double my bet and try to hit 3 diamonds for the 1.48x to cover my losses and if I lose that double again.

 

This is obviously very risky and is kind of like martingale which doesn't work. 

 

Once I win I double again for 2 bets then bet half and win keep cutting my bet in half. 

 

So for example a session for me might look like this

 

1000 W x1.48 

1480 W x1.48

2190 W x1.48

3240 W

So here you've pretty much tripled up 

 

I usually would bet around 2-300 a hand here 

So this is what it would look like with W/Ls

 

200 W

200 W

200 W 

200 L

200 L

400 L

800 W

1600 W

1600 L

800 W

400 W

200 L

200 W

200 W

 

Something like that. 

 

Also try to set limits for yourself so for example for me I usually will try to cash out at $10-15000 +1% (my exchange's commission for fiat conversion)

Sometimes I'll get tilted and get away from this strategy which is where my huge down or upswings come from but generally this is a solid strategy that can work as long as you deposit a higher amount each time you play (roughly 10-15% more than last time).

Keep in mind no strategy is going to work when it comes to a house edge but if you follow this strategy every single time and increase your deposits by 10-15% every time you play in the long run it will work. However the problem is people generally don't have a larger bank roll than the casino. What I mean by this is each time you do this strategy you have to triple up in your first 3 bets which is a 30% success rate. 

So if you lose 3 times in a row (3.43% chance (0.7x0.7x0.7)), the fourth time you do this strat you will have to do it with how much ever you've lost the past 3 times just to break even.

So for example

1000

1100

1210

Let's say you lost all those

That's $3310 

You need to bet at LEAST 1550 on the fourth bet with this strategy in order to break even. 

Which is why I say you need to increase your deposits each time.

Roughly 10% will keep you under even but what I would recommend is multiple your last deposit by 1.15 and then round up to the nearest 100 or 50 or whatever unit you are playing with. 

This is obviously not a grind and for people who are more interested in having fun instead of profiting this is not only going to be a quick win/loss but also boring and stressful. 

I myself don't even always follow this strategy because I want to have fun sometimes or I get tilted easily and try chasing "losses"/potential gains. 

Also DISCLAIMER on this strategy:

Theoretically in the long run you will hit a profit with this strategy assuming you are always increasing bets but that also assumes an infinite bankroll and that stake will accept any bet. In reality people don't have infinite bankrolls and Stake's max bet is 100k so once you hit ~$31500 as your original bet on the first of 3 wins you can not continue the strategy. 

However to try and reclaim small losses it can work in theory. 

 

This is more so just an experience I wanted to share rather than give advice with. 

 

Do not use this strategy thinking it is a guaranteed way to make money. You have to be willing to go all in on your first 3 bets for this to work and there is a decent chance that it doesn't. 

 

There is no strategy that will ever be guaranteed to work because Stake has a 1% edge. 

 

Some people may not even find this a fun way to play. 

 

 

Anyway, just wanted to share. 

 

Also withdrawal screenshots are in USD while the excel doc is in CAD so that is the reason for any discrepancies. 

 

Good luck to anyone that uses this strat!