Help with Mr. Ghostnipple and Strat

[seanwattson]

@Ghostnippleis an avid Stake fan like myself who tends to work out the smarter way to play the originals. He is super smart with all the maths. Hey sir,  I notices after a run of losses I can hit really soon so I was thinking 🤔........

What if I made myself lose a bunch in a row then target aggressively after? For example go for 10kx on dice wirh super small wager. After every 2k rolls bett a little higher with applying the pressure really aggressively. I tried this and it showed promising results but really not results to confirm. Maybe when I get a new balance I will try again....how should I approach. 

Thanks!!!!

[jungl3]

I'm not the esteemed @Ghostnipple , but I know what you're talking about. It's as though you're allowed to win a big multi at a certain point. Most noticeable is going all in with rakeback on a high multi after ripping.

Anecdotally, originals only let me hit to a certain percentage of my depos that day or past 48/72 hours. Lose 1000 and I can hit a multi to win 800 or maybe 900 when I'm down to double digits or even the last few bucks. I can do this twice, maybe 3 times and then it's always a rip to zero after that. Sometimes it's a recovery or depo +5% or depo +10%, but it's always a defined ceiling and a set routine where variance is concerned.

I fully believe the stake games are rigged. This pattern has happened to me so many times now that nothing else makes sense. I don't think it's possible to ever be up more than x% relative to your total profit/loss on the site on originals, unless you have a special account or have been chosen somehow, no matter how or when you play. And I'm talking about hundreds of dollars, not being up $6.38 on a fresh account or a bronze being up a few hundred lifetime.

 

Inb4 anybody hits out with the "but provably fair" chat. I'm not a believer. Make it blockchain based and externally audited, then we can talk.

 

[Max0xaM]

On 2/1/2022 at 3:21 AM, Ghostnipple said:

Sorry Sean Ive been pretty busy with various things the last week, Im only seeing your post now.

It would seem to make sense to me, you have as much experience with these games as my self. You have probably noticed that losing streaks tend to prolong and that the higher targets have a tendency to cluster in 3s. This doesn't always happen of course, but it happens often enough to take notice.

I can tell you the most effective strategy is one that stake do not facilitate. There are two ways to profit in any of these games. One is to increase bet size, this is the one that stake favour, and actively encourage for obvious reasons.

The other way to profit is conspicuous by its absence. Even in the advanced betting facility (dice) stake do not facilitate this second way. I argued convincingly for the second, but the devs could produced no counter argument, so they just ignored my request. Why do you think that is?

I can tell you why, it is the one way players can profit over the long term. Instead of increasing betsize on loss you increase target value. Consider the nature of variance, it works both ways, there is no one sided variance, some targets will show late, some will show early. It is the early target variance that guarantees our target will hit. 

There are two things to consider with this strategy:

1: This is not a gamblers strategy. Gamblers dont like it because its boring. If you want to gamble then dont use this strategy. If you want to make money then use it.

2: The smaller your betsize the more options you have when variance takes a long extended negative run. For example if our target has risen to 10,000x without hitting and our bet size is 1 sat, we can divide our target by 10 and multiply our betsize by 10. So our new target is 1000x and our betsize is 10sats. The payout is the same. (please note this is an example)

I have never had a target not hit using this strategy, I may have to wait two weeks before it hits. I may rip 2 or 3 times before it hits. There is smart loss and dumb loss. When I have sats I continue. The money is always on the table and when your target hits you get every last sat back from the fucking casino. They hate this strategy, because they know it guarantees loss.

I made 200 btc with this as my core strategy.

 

You need to understand the difference between gambling and a gambling experience.

Disney have a star wars experience, people pay to be lied to, everything and everyone in that disney star wars experience is pretending to be part of the star wars universe. They are not, they are actors, the sets are fake. The visitors are complicit in the lies, they pay to be lied to they want to suspend reality and they believe the lies they are told. They enter the fantasy star wars universe. It is an experience it is not reality.

Online "casinos" if you can call them "casinos" are not casinos. They are doing exactly the same thing. Except the players don't know its a "gambling experience", they believe it to be real gambling. They are taken on a controlled ride, they experience the ups and down of the gambling experience including the total loss. Everything they see is telling them lies, pretending to be gambling when it is not. When you have taken the ride enough times you begin to realise its not real, and you stop coming.

This is why online "casinos" have such a high turn over of players. Every 3 months there is a total change in the players. Staff with any degree of integrity can't stomach the lies and they will also leave.

(I made a post about this last week, but the powers here deleted it, I asked why but was given no reason as to why.)

 

 

This lady has just experienced what it means to truly make a bet.

I'm assuming thats a microphone.

Thanks @Ghostnipple for thinking difrently about increasing the target rather than the bet amount, May I ask if I done it right or wrong ? I devide my balance by 1000, then lets say that I play dice, I start with 2x then add 2 each time I lose, so the target will be 2,4,6,10.....100 when I reach 100 I start to increase it by 1, 101,102,103....1000 if I reached 1000 target without hitting any target I will lose my balance, I done it successfully multiple times, I found out that I hit more targets with dice than limbo, Can you guide me if done right.

 

Thanks again

[Max0xaM]

14 minutes ago, Ghostnipple said:

you could do that but its a bit risky,

no what I suggest is very simple raise the target by 1x

Try starting with 1.10x target

One scenario that can occur is that there are no high targets to hit. You are already at 1000x. If your basebet was low say 1 sat... you are now betting 1 sat at 1000x. You can drop the target and increase the base bet by a similar amount. For example using a factor of 10 our new betsize becomes 10 sats our new target becomes 100x. The trick with this is you need to have left enough room with your starting basebet  and balance to accommodate that situation.

 

Sorry for asking too many questions but I am taking this great chance to learn from your experience, in general what is the win rate using this method ? For example it success rate 4 out of 5, I am using your method but slightly edited it, my win rate is about 2 out of 5 maybe because of adding 2x, last one question do you prefer limbo, dice or crash ? Thank you in advance and sorry again for the disturbence

[Max0xaM]

37 minutes ago, Ghostnipple said:

 

Implementing a variety of strategies including the one above I made 1 million bets on one account, of those bets placed 80% were loss 20% win.
I started with 0.04 btc and stopped at a profit of 88btc.

In truth I made more than that but under accounts of different names, which I am not prepared to post publicly. The ghostnipple account is evidence enough to illustrate my point.

This information is publicly available on line, the leaderboard lists me as the number 1 player in the history of the site.

I would like to post the site name but the last time I tried to help players I was set up, and then banned for a month. Two individuals in particular (dupeddonk  Maverick) are trying to get me banned from this site completely. 

Thank you so much for replying and provideing tips for new players, that is the reason I asked you kindly in my post if you have enough time to spare and talk in discord because I do not want you to get muted or banned, any way thank you for all the informations you provided me and others, have a wonderful day/night 😊