Tip for locking in Profit on Sports

[nightjdp]

Using NBA as an example. Lakers just beat the Suns in a very close match. As with many NBA games, before halftime Lakers were up by over 10 points.

The price of the Suns had drifted all the way to 5.0. If you had taken that bet, you would of seen the Suns come back and nearing end of 3rd quarter they were then the slight favs with their price being 1.75 and Lakers being 1.85.

Now you could hit the Cashout button. But you hardly do as the cashout doesn't seem like enough, and hey, they're going to win right?! There is a premium tax you pay on using the cashout button.

So better, at that moment when you've placed a bet on the Suns at 5.0 and now they are all the way down to 1.75, is to now make a bet on the Lakers who were 1.85

So if you bet $100 on Suns at 5.0 your potential return is $500 (400 of which is profit)

So now you bet $270 on the Lakers at 1.85. Potential return on that bet is $500 (230 of which is profit)

So now your total amount invested is $370 on the two bets. But you are guaranteed profit no matter who wins.

If the Suns win, you receive your winning bet of $500 - the 370 invested on the two bets. You walk away with $130 
If the Lakers win you receive your winning bet of $500, and again -370 you invested and you walk away with $130

So no matter who wins, you make $130. And the best part is you only had to risk the initial bet of $100 when you took the Suns at 5.0
Because when you make the 2nd bet, that $270 is risk free because you are betting on the opposite team on your first bet. Impossible to lose.

This is how you double your money. That same $100 bet if you pressed the cashout button instead of doing this, you would of only made $50 to 70 profit max, while using this method, you make double the amount.

You can also use this technique to just get your $100 back you invested, so you lose nothing if they lose, and you win bigger money if they win.

So same scenario, when the Suns were now the slight favs, you bet just $120 on the Lakers at 1.85. If the Lakers win, you get $220, which covers your $100 Suns initial bet. So you win nothing, but you also lose nothing.

If the Suns win, you get that $500 winning bet back. Minus your expenses of $220. You walk away $280 of profit.

GL and enjoy the games!

 

[Reincarnate]

Nice tip bro. 

[tsunwaidave]

Forget it its all about luck

[Vennali]

This works only if things go your way. Let's say you took Suns +5.5 while they are down 10 and the lead keeps increasing. What do you do? 

[nightjdp]

Then you lose you $100 or try and cut your loses by backing Lakers at 1.25.

Bet $200 on Lakers at that short price you will make back $50. It's not a good bet though, the whole point is to not take on so much risk. Suns pre game were 2.10. You'd have to bet $400 to make 400 basically. You take them at 5.0, you only have to bet $100 to make 400. So even if you take them and they go on to flop. Small potatoes compared to putting $400 on them pre game.  

You are betting on the price moving, not on who wins the game. This is too difficult in many sports like Women's tennis, NBA etc. When you see a nice price that doesn't reflect what is happening on court, you take it. Down 10 and it's not even half time and you have Booker and KD on the court, and the price is 5.0+?! I'll take that any day!

The price is made by people betting in the market. That short price doesn't represent the statistical probability of the match, it represents how much money is on one side, and most of it is irrational and emotional betting shaping the price, not statistical probability. 

[destinyzfate]

Hedging is good, just takes a lot of time investment. Watching the game

[nightjdp]

You know it. But if you want to make money long term, you gotta put the work in. No such thing as long term EZ Money, being green over the year takes dedication

[Brzk]

In stock Market this is called hedge. 

[nightjdp]

On 12/9/2023 at 12:38 AM, Brzk said:

In stock Market this is called hedge. 

Exact a mundo. 

[Smallacus-2]

That’s just Purley assuming whoever is behind at half time always wins 3rd quarter

[nightjdp]

No, it's taking value. If you lose you lose. But if you win, you got great value. 5x your return. If you took them start of match you would of got less than half of that. Also, I did explain how to hedge your bets and minimise loss if you are so inclined. 

[haridevrudra]

thank you. im gonna carefully consider this on my next slip

[mestreshake]

i dont think it works in the long term

[Volapoker]

im gonna try it.

[Smile258]

Cool

[Stakej93]

good

[luqzy]

cool man

[fakyatk]

Thanks