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MemphisRPM

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Everything posted by MemphisRPM

  1. The issue with everyone one of these "omg how is this bad streak of luck I am having even possible" posts is that they almost always have the same answer. You don't understand probability (or, if being nice, you don't understand how to apply it to gambling situations). First off, the way the rules of BJ are setup the dealer is always going to win significantly more hands than the player. The only reason the edge ends up so small is the players ability to splitz double, etc. The above being said it is far more likely that the dealer will win a streak of hands than the player. These streaks you are posting to invalidate the fairness of the casino as a whole are simply not that uncommon when taking into account the sheer number of hands being played out. Stake originals being infinite deck also makes things a bit more variance heavy. You have to understand what infinite deck and infinite shuffle mean when applying it to probability. It's not a player advantage but the opposite. The odds of losing 7 blackjack hands in a row, assuming perfect strategy is only ~0.59%. That's back of napkin math but as you can see it's not some once in a lifetime event. The odds of the player winning 4 hands in a row? Around 4.5%. Another stat to know... The odds of a dealer drawing 6 cards to a non busting hand? Only 1 in 270 5 card? 1 in 31. 4 card non bust? 1 in 6.1 Now, assuming basic strategy, what are the same odds for the player? 6 card - 1 in 400 5 card - 1 in 50 4 card - 1 in 10 THIS is the thing that makes players most start to think "rigged." You simply see the dealer drawing more cards without busting more often. It makes sense however. As the player you are not going to be drawing as often because you have the option to stand. This leads to more opportunities. Also, you are going to be drawing with worse hands and against better ones. The bottom line is.... There really isn't any reason for a place like Stake to cheat players. Blackjack is a mathmatically certain way to make money. Just like every other casino game. I know I didn't answer the title question but I didn't answer because I don't think that's actually what you need to know. I think you really are just asking "look at this run, doesn't this prove Stake is cheating?" and the answer is no. I highly recommend you look into the probability of blackjack and other games if you want some peace. It helped me to go deep into it. Every gambler has felt the feelings you are having now. Some have them forever and stay angry, conspiratorial and mad. Some learn math. The issue with everyone one of these "omg how is this bad streak of luck I am having even possible" posts is that they almost always have the same answer. You don't understand probability (or, if being nice, you don't understand how to apply it to gambling situations). First off, the way the rules of BJ are setup the dealer is always going to win significantly more hands than the player. The only reason the edge ends up so small is the players ability to splitz double, etc. The above being said it is far more likely that the dealer will win a streak of hands than the player. These streaks you are posting to invalidate the fairness of the casino as a whole are simply not that uncommon when taking into account the sheer number of hands being played out. Stake originals being infinite deck also makes things a bit more variance heavy. You have to understand what infinite deck and infinite shuffle mean when applying it to probability. It's not a player advantage but the opposite. The odds of losing 7 blackjack hands in a row, assuming perfect strategy is only ~0.59%. That's back of napkin math but as you can see it's not some once in a lifetime event. The odds of the player winning 4 hands in a row? Around 4.5%. Another stat to know... The odds of a dealer drawing 6 cards to a non busting hand? Only 1 in 270 5 card? 1 in 31. 4 card non bust? 1 in 6.1 Now, assuming basic strategy, what are the same odds for the player? 6 card - 1 in 400 5 card - 1 in 50 4 card - 1 in 10 THIS is the thing that makes players most start to think "rigged." You simply see the dealer drawing more cards without busting more often. It makes sense however. As the player you are not going to be drawing as often because you have the option to stand. This leads to more opportunities. Also, you are going to be drawing with worse hands and against better ones. The bottom line is.... There really isn't any reason for a place like Stake to cheat players. Blackjack I don't is a mathmatically certain way to make money. Just like every other casino game. I know I didn't answer the title question but I didn't answer because I don't think that's actually what you need to know. I think you really are just asking "look at this run, doesn't this prove Stake is cheating?" and the answer is no. I highly recommend you look into the probability of blackjack and other games if you want some peace. It helped me to go deep into it. Every gambler has felt the feelings you are having now. Some have them forever and stay angry, conspiratorial and mad. Some learn math.
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