Honestly after getting burned a few times I just let the bet ride now unless my gut really screams at me, chasing the cashout button never seems to pay off.
If you're actually betting it, wait until after the group stage draw comes out so you know the path they'd have to take. Those odds always shift hard once the bracket is set.
The whole "mess with the content" part is exactly why Duolingo's unhinged comment sections pop off, people want a remixable playground, not a final cut.