Playing for wager is bad, and here is why.

[C8H18]

The topic is pretty much exactly what the title says, I always found “wagering” to be something you don't really want to aim for, except for a few niche scenarios.

I see so many people do that for various reasons, so I wanted to hear your justifications of that. 

Allow me to explain myself now. By wagering/playing for wager in this context I mean, for example, doing 1.01x bets on Limbo or Dice for prolonged periods of time, in order to accumulate some wager at the cost of steady loss of some of your funds, which is mathematically bound to happen. 

So, this topic is about setting wager as your primary goal for a session with “optimal” strategy.

Few things to note: 

We will assume that while wagering you are playing Dice at 1.102x, 98% win chance, as cookie cutter for wagering as it gets. In all originals, you will end up pretty much the same, the only difference will be the average loss sustained due to the house edge. 

You can use many strategies, but unless you have infinite bankroll, your strategy will eventually fail, and you will come to the same expected loss as everyone else.
With reasonably limited budget, even with small bets, playing Martingale, d'Alembert or any other strategy will only decrease the change of losing at this moment, but when you get an unlucky streak, you will eventually take a huge loss which might cost all your balance. Strategies matter short-term, not long-term, casino is always smarter and more profitable than you are. 

Luck factor: 

Obviously, in the short term your luck can be either above or below average, even significantly so, but it all evens out. Let it run for long enough, and you will get to the RTP and winrate promised by the game.

Why is playing for wager is meaningless? 

Let's tackle three common cases here:

• You wager because you want bigger bonuses: The wager you get this way will most certainly not cover your losses, unless your luck is exceptional at all times, in which case you should just go and steal from the casino. If you do it purely to prepare for some bonuses, there is no reason to do so, and you will end up in a net loss. 
  
  Here is why: Given a bankroll of $100, by betting on 1.0102x, 98%wr on dice, you are expected to wager around $9,897 with median luck. Do you think 10k wager and $100 lost can give you a $100 bonus? I doubt it, you just lost some money. 
   
• You wager because you want to reach the next VIP level faster: Same point as 1, it is simply not worth it. At any point in your gambling journey, it is better to try your luck in a way that actually lets you win on a good day. No matter how far from/close to the next rank you are, wagering does not pay off in bonuses. 
  
  Let's say you have a new non VIP account, and you decide to get as much wager as you can with your $1000. That will get you to around $99,861, but let's pretend it is just 100k, and you hit Gold VIP. You will receive: $175 total from Bronze/Silver/Gold bonuses, some extra from lossback that comes with them, and maybe increased weekly and monthly. After collecting all of that, you will be nowhere close to getting the wagered $1000 back. 
   
• You wager because you want to claim bonus drops: I guess this one is pretty clear, you are not profiting from a $25 code after wagering $100k for it.

Exclusion: 

• Wagering to catch rain in chat: This one is actually fair, median loss required to get to $3500 weekly wager is around $36, and if you have no personal life or concept of a full-time job, you can claim way more than that from rains in chat. And get smitten with a rain ban. 
  
   

Conclusion:

Wager should only be a by-product, but under no circumstances should you set it as your goal and play with many tiny bets. Remember, the longer you play, the more likely you are to lose. Median player is in all time loss, and all luck is temporary. 

Take what you can, while you can, strike fast, win big, withdraw faster.

Stay strong, and may your greens be many and your losses few.

[CulitoFuerte]

You are right,  I do aim for wagger for times like Christmas in July, Anniversary or Christmas. This month I wagered almost 250k but without losses, only 10$ maybe. 
I'm sitting at 270$ prize in the race (by the end of it probably 200$) and 10k away from level up bonus to Plat II

Forgot to mention the streams where I have the wagger to collect all drops + weekly

But yes, this should be done when it matters and to be very careful. When balance drops I try get it back from live games.
Getting it back also with originals it's not a good idea

Edited December 30, 2024 by CulitoFuerte

[C8H18]

Guess I did not think about adding that one, but participating in races is also fair. Although, again, in my opinion you would be better off just playing games normally, which could lead to some wins if you are lucky. 

I can see wanting to wager if there is an unusual amount of events/races/bonuses going on, which will offset your expected losses

[CulitoFuerte]

Yes, other than that it's not worth it

I mentioned the stream drops. This is also something people are trying to wager for. Not long ago, I created a post asking for opinions on whether the drops should be based solely on wagering. I suggested something like wagering or money lost.

Not many people agreed with that, even though it's more than fair. It's possible to wager 10k with just 10$, losing only the $10. Meanwhile, someone else might lose $1,000 but only wager $4k. This disparity isn't fair at all.

Not many people agreed with this, but one or two weeks later, Eddie mentioned the same thing on a stream 😁. But nothing changed, yet