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Lost to a 0.00354300% chance


AGreenleaf

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Posted

That's crazy low chances. I've had similar expierences with insanely low probability losses.

I once lost a doge martingale due to 25 reds in a row at %50 chance of winning the bet. Think the chances are like once every 33554432.00 bets.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Enzo said:

That's crazy low chances. I've had similar expierences with insanely low probability losses.

I once lost a doge martingale due to 25 reds in a row at %50 chance of winning the bet. Think the chances are like once every 33554432.00 bets.

but think of how many 1000s of bets were played before it happened... i dont think it was just click ok start.. and a few bets later that streak manifesting itself... i think when yuo look at it like that things look a littler differentl

Posted
10 hours ago, cryptonesiac said:

I have tested over a hundred different strategies and my conclusion is that all of them are not profitable on the long term... I'd say that very low multipliers are the fastest strategy to bust, but maybe it's because your base bet has to be high (for example with a 1.01 multiplier, you have to bet 100 units to gain 1 unit)

high multipliers work better, but the profit is minimal. It takes a real long time before you double your original balance (and in the end the odds might be the same as just x2 all-in).

There's still a variety of strategies I want to test, but it has more to do with a dynamic strategy of the amount of profit and the risk to double that profit. If you have any suggestions on what to test, send me a message and I'll see if I already tested and/or if it's worth testing :D

I was thinking if your way of testing included the no. of fixed rolls eg. 1m rolls on whichever strategy you decided, and you then look at the general result?

If so, could it also isolate very lucky streaks in which you don’t have to play all the way till your predetermined no. Of rolls but could stop there instead? 

In that case, like in real life a player could stop after hitting big multipliers in a very short span of time! 

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

Hello 

I hate to inform you, but it probably was a much higher chance than that. As irawk0 said, it's not uncommon to see much more than that, and here is why..

If I tell you, you are allowed to make 15 rolls, and ONLY 15 rolls for your entire life, and you make those 15 rolls, the chance that they will all be red.. is indeed 0.003543%.

But if you make, let's say 1000 rolls, or 10,000 rolls, or 100K rolls, then the chance of seeing 15 reds in a row (let's say it's the killer to your martingale strategy, 15 reds and you're dead) is much much higher..

For 1000 rolls: 1.7197%
For 10000 rolls: about 16.0659%
For 100000 rolls: about 82.7114%

So the chance of seeing it increases the more you roll... I hope this helps you in future. All the best with your strategies. 👍

Posted

its 100% possible even 20+more reds in 2x. this is why you will bust if you are in the wrong side, some of us here thinking that after 3 4 5 to 10 reds will make us green on the next roll and boom we are bust :)  so if you only have a limited bankroll then play it carefully, be unpredictable by changing strategy.   

Posted

My longest streak lost on limbo 2x is almost 27 streak But I only bet small amount 
I really hate experience, I play on plinko with 36 Streak 0.2x bust my 0.7 ETH

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