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Dice is rigged


Justinsymbolic
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On 12/11/2023 at 7:57 PM, kavpau said:

Yep
Have avoided dice for a while but came back and once again seems same old rubbish

Was doing a low level delayed martingale on 40% chance

Bet nothing for first 6 losses

then only bet 0.00000010 ETH (nowhere even near a USD cent)

double bet every loss

Total bank roll $150

 

25 losses in a row, wiped out $87, and not enough to double bet for 26th go

The likihood of 25 losses in a row is 0.00065%..., so around 1 in 200,000 chance of happening

didn't even hit 4,000 dice rolls for it to happen.

 

No matter what I do, it always seems to do the statistically impossible.
I'll give this same strat a run again on the weekend and lets see if I get anywhere near 200,000 rolls. Considering it hit in 4,000 I would expect to see a run of near 400,000 without it occuring, unlikely.

 

Tried again with a smaller balance

1,418 rolls

ends with a 17th in a row failing, on a 40% chance of winning

Probability of this happening is 0.014%, meaning 140 times in a million, yet I've managed it in under 1,500 rolls AND that's not counting my earlier attempt where it failed 25 times in a row (which includes a 17 in a row). This just is not statisically right.


image.png.02885669e33ff3c2df1365fbd2643989.png

image.thumb.png.77320366a8e1801ee8874aa1547d1a5e.png

That's nothing men try in high amount 

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  • 1 month later...
On 12/11/2023 at 8:57 AM, kavpau said:

Yep
Have avoided dice for a while but came back and once again seems same old rubbish

Was doing a low level delayed martingale on 40% chance

Bet nothing for first 6 losses

then only bet 0.00000010 ETH (nowhere even near a USD cent)

double bet every loss

Total bank roll $150

 

25 losses in a row, wiped out $87, and not enough to double bet for 26th go

The likihood of 25 losses in a row is 0.00065%..., so around 1 in 200,000 chance of happening

didn't even hit 4,000 dice rolls for it to happen.

 

My sweet child,

you said you were doing .4 chance? That means you have a .6 to lose, not a .4 to lose. Not counting the house edge on your wager but not as important as you're doing martingale I feel like you just made a mistake in your post there and that was not what you meant, I can't imagine you did the math five or six times and didn't notice since obviously that is statistically absurd. Except your win/loss clearly shows you were and that you were even within range.

However, the numbers you are claiming only make sense if you are only doing 25 and 17 rolls respectively with no other attempts.

I'll go through it, I wanted to post some of my findings anyway on how to interpret large sample sizes so this is nice to go over.

I agree. If you had lost those bets at 0.6, you would totally have a reason to be wary. However, at .4, it's a completely different story. I would love to see your seeds from that session. I don't need all the rolls just the server side seed and your client seed plus the last nonce.

0.6 winrate.

 

image.thumb.png.3128d2365c0af266ab49c79cf2f2f45b.png

yikes. that's very unlikely. so that's probably not the case.

 

Let's consider the following:

This is if you were actually at 0.4 winrate.

 

image.thumb.png.dc1cc51a5a22ad0f141377d7526377ee.png

 

point is it was actually pretty likely that would happen and you should prepare better before thinking you can go 5000 rolls without hitting an unlucky result on .4 of all things. Had you been on .6 you would have pretty much never gotten anywhere in there.

9999x dice roll hits are not really that uncommon compared to something like 1000x on plinko.

If you are willing or anyone else is willing to, send me a high nonce revealed server seed you have and a client seed/final nonce, and I can do some independent verification for whoever. None of that is PII. I wrote my own verifiers based on their documentation.

 

nighty night, someone please tell me if I messed something up I started to get kinda bored since I rewrote those tables and then did it again but got them mixed up since I was multitasking, I'll fix it tomorrow and add more documentation for people to do it themselves

edit: i already fixed it it was really wrong, it is correct now

 

Edited by midnight
i fixed it lol
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  • 3 weeks later...
On 12/11/2023 at 7:57 PM, kavpau said:

Yep
Have avoided dice for a while but came back and once again seems same old rubbish

Was doing a low level delayed martingale on 40% chance

Bet nothing for first 6 losses

then only bet 0.00000010 ETH (nowhere even near a USD cent)

double bet every loss

Total bank roll $150

 

25 losses in a row, wiped out $87, and not enough to double bet for 26th go

The likihood of 25 losses in a row is 0.00065%..., so around 1 in 200,000 chance of happening

didn't even hit 4,000 dice rolls for it to happen.

 

No matter what I do, it always seems to do the statistically impossible.
I'll give this same strat a run again on the weekend and lets see if I get anywhere near 200,000 rolls. Considering it hit in 4,000 I would expect to see a run of near 400,000 without it occuring, unlikely.

 

Tried again with a smaller balance

1,418 rolls

ends with a 17th in a row failing, on a 40% chance of winning

Probability of this happening is 0.014%, meaning 140 times in a million, yet I've managed it in under 1,500 rolls AND that's not counting my earlier attempt where it failed 25 times in a row (which includes a 17 in a row). This just is not statisically right.


image.png.02885669e33ff3c2df1365fbd2643989.png

image.thumb.png.77320366a8e1801ee8874aa1547d1a5e.png

Yeah it's absolutely rigged. I conducted several statistical studies and they all prove one axiom. Any large increase in bet or attempt to win back will lead to red.

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