Odds of this week's forum Casino Promotion

[Thepug]

I'm not complaining about this challenge at all, but I'm just letting people know the odds of hitting this challenge, so you don't feel disappointed after many rolls.

The plinko challenge is "Plinko: Win three consecutive bets on High 14 with minimum payout of the winning bet being 18x (it can be 18x, 56x and / or 420x, and the payouts do NOT have to be different)." Just so people know the difficulty of this challenge, I did the math for it.

0.5554 + 0.5554 + 0.0854 + 0.0854 + 0.0061 + 0.0061 = 1.2938% (The total odds of hitting an 18x, 56x or 420x)

Then, since you need to get 3 in a row, the odds would be:

1.2938% x 1.2938% x 1.2938% = 0.00000216571

1/0.00000216571 = 461742.33854 = 461742 rolls (statistically) to complete the challenge

So, congrats to anyone that has already completed it, and to those that are thinking of doing the challenge, assess the probability before risking your money  

[Ali saher]

Ohh I don't know about this requirement of forum plinko challenge.and as such I not participate any forum challenges or Tele challenge because I think if you want complete forum challenges then you need so much balance,time and patience and this is not confirmed after this you complete or not complete,just few players take benefits these challenges.

[Dp10011]

I do not like that game. And the challenge is that I don't play anything. Even more so with these non-encouraging calculations! I'm out!
I will wait for another challenge in a game that I like. I will only see the lamentations about this challenge through the chat. Plinko is bad! 

Good luck all!  

[tae40127]

damn when i see the no. or math it like a sleeping pill but if chage math to meth it can make me awake to make understand more haha all the way they need too get luck to if unluck although  0.0000001% to busted it will happen 

[Philip74]

I only just completed the roulette part which took about 2600 bets and I started on the Plinko and was thinking to myself, is that quite common to hit 3 consecutive above 18x? Then I thought I must have read the instructions wrong, surely they said 5x and above and I didn't notice it, but I read the instructions again 3-4 times and it was indeed 18x and above. So I did some quick calculations and saw the odds were something like 1/400k. Thank you @Thepug for pointing this out for everyone to see. Challenges are getting more and more ridiculous. I doubt there will be 15 people who complete the challenge this week, 0.01 btc/15=66k sats not worth the time, effort and think also of the house edge.  

[Seoulmate]

4 hours ago, Thepug said:

I'm not complaining about this challenge at all, but I'm just letting people know the odds of hitting this challenge, so you don't feel disappointed after many rolls.

The plinko challenge is "Plinko: Win three consecutive bets on High 14 with minimum payout of the winning bet being 18x (it can be 18x, 56x and / or 420x, and the payouts do NOT have to be different)." Just so people know the difficulty of this challenge, I did the math for it.

0.5554 + 0.5554 + 0.0854 + 0.0854 + 0.0061 + 0.0061 = 1.2938% (The total odds of hitting an 18x, 56x or 420x)

Then, since you need to get 3 in a row, the odds would be:

1.2938% x 1.2938% x 1.2938% = 0.00000216571

1/0.00000216571 = 461742.33854 = 461742 rolls (statistically) to complete the challenge

So, congrats to anyone that has already completed it, and to those that are thinking of doing the challenge, assess the probability before risking your money  

Nice work there man. Ive never entered a challenge myself, I dont think it makes a lot of sense to wager in that way, you can lose a lot of money chasing the targets that are normally set in those challenges. If you hit them in your normal course of betting thats fine. But I would not make it priority myself.

[wry]

Thanks for this useful post!  I looked at it and realized it was going to take awhile, thanks for calculating exactly how long it *should* take!

Kudos to all who complete it!

[Guest]

Hey, @Thepug!

I've edited the challenge now, you can check out the new Plinko requirement here:

 

[jamesbond]

Nice calculations @Thepug , saved a lot of time and efforts for others.  Now you can see your efforts paid off and Irena has changed plinko challenge a bit.  Wish now more people will be able to complete it and win it.

[Guest]

I always appreciate the feedback, and I'm always up for a compromise, after all... all of this is made for you, not to torture you, but for you guys to have fun.

[Ayesha0770]

That's a lot of effort calculating the odds and yes it is really hard 3 in a row takes time to hit except if you are lucky enough and odds are with you

[sahil777]

i am already scared of these hard challenges, and now you make me more scared lol, i stop participating in challenges anymore, because of that, i mean when ever i tried i busted more than i won, so its not for me i think maybe high rollers are perfect for challenges.

[Rashed00]

Hello, In my opinion I was already scared of these difficult challenges, and now that you have scared me even more, I stopped participating in the challenges anymore, meaning that I tried to insist more than when I won, so it is not for me.  I think high roller is perfect for the challenge. Hopefully you understand

[seanwattson]

It's one of those challenges where you think it will never be done but when you have hundreds of people going for it you will see it pop up everywhere. 

It only takes a few lucky rolls to actually do it! Good luck and stay green! 

[Thepug]

On 3/18/2020 at 12:12 PM, seanwattson said:

It's one of those challenges where you think it will never be done but when you have hundreds of people going for it you will see it pop up everywhere. 

It only takes a few lucky rolls to actually do it! Good luck and stay green! 

It’s lucky that they did change it, and I believe that I was a catalyst in doing so. Sometimes, it just takes a friendly forum post about a topic, that can lead to important improvements and corrections can be made.  

[seanwattson]

4 hours ago, Thepug said:

It’s lucky that they did change it, and I believe that I was a catalyst in doing so. Sometimes, it just takes a friendly forum post about a topic, that can lead to important improvements and corrections can be made.  

True. You know sometimes when we make grievances it is not because we are whiney bitches but it is because they are valid and arguable to a degree. I have seen the opposite where people take it too far.

[BidaManEris]

No longer pointing about the challenge but the math itself, this happens more often than the number represents (just like its equivalent on how 12 reds in 1.5x appears). If the chance would be followed normally, the challenge during this time is very difficult, but it is not impossible as it tries to present.

PS: It is a challenge, so it should be difficult to achieve right? 

[Aiza824]

Has anyone ever hit this challenge before that's still on profit after attempting to get it? I am curious.

[Tarek2333]

Maybe this time it would pay out enough to save him.t didn’t. He spent the next four hours burning through $13,000 from the account, plugging any winnings back into the machine, until he had only $4,000 left. Around noon, he gave uActually, it sound like they have made the promotion a little better. p.